Assessing the Impact of Covid-19 on the Chinese Economy: A Comprehensive Analysis

Purpose: This study develops a novel methodology for measuring systemic risk through a multidimensional approach, focusing on the impact of exogenous factors. By identifying systemic risk and analysing individual risk factors, we aim to provide a more comprehensive understanding of vulnerabilities in the financial sector. Design/methodology/approach: We use econometric models to assess systemic risk, applying our method to eight systemically important financial institutions in Poland between 2005 and 2023. Our analysis covers various risk factors, including climate risk, stock market fluctuations, and interbank liquidity, enabling both isolated and overall assessment of the impact of exogenous shocks on the system. Findings: Our results show that climate risk is becoming increasingly significant, particularly in light of recent crises such as the COVID-19 pandemic and Russia's invasion of Ukraine. We also observe an increase in systemic risk during specific periods (2008-2009 and 2011 2013), with the impact of individual shocks varying. Research limitations/implications: Our results highlight the need for sophisticated, multidimensional analyses of systemic risk to enhance the resilience of financial systems against diverse shocks. Practical implications: This research contributes to the existing literature by offering a universal framework for assessing systemic risk that aggregates multiple exogenous factors, particularly emphasizing the often-overlooked role of climate risk. Social implications: The research provides a framework for identifying systemic risks, including climate-related vulnerabilities, enabling policymakers to enhance the resilience of financial systems and protect societal stability against diverse economic and environmental shocks. Originality/value: Importantly, we are the first to combine transition risk indicated by stranded assets with physical risk, measured by temperature deviations from the multi-year average, in the assessment of Polish systemic climate risk.

В статье рассмотрены основные риски и проблемы управления ими, влияющие на производственные предприятия ненефтяного сектора в кризисных условиях. Основным барьером в исследовании является несовершенная система риск-менеджмента в нынешних условиях, где значительно обострены как экономические, так и межстрановые социально-политические противоречия, что в свою очередь приводит к снижению конкурентоспособности большей части предприятий. Главная цель – разработать мероприятия по модернизации и усовершенствованию системы риск-менеджмента на промышленном предприятии на основе ключевых элементов, а именно - оценка рисков и принятие управленческих решений. Здесь также отражена методологическая база по управлению рисками, были рассмотрены главные подходы по управлению предприятием в условиях неопределенности, детализирована модель - алгоритм управления рисками в системе долгосрочного управления предприятием. Здесь также предлагается обновленная система управления стратегической стабильностью организации путём разработки системы риск-менеджмента, соответствующей стадии их становления, а также этапу сопутствующей системы. В статье даны рекомендации по модернизации механизма долгосрочного управления промышленным предприятием на базе интеграции основных элементов управления рисками в единую систему управления предприятием. The article considers the main risks and problems of their management that affect production enterprises in the non-oil sector in a crisis. The main barrier in the study is an imperfect risk management system in modern conditions, when both economic and intercountry socio-political contradictions are significantly aggravated, which in turn leads to a decrease in the competitiveness of most enterprises. The main goal is to develop measures to modernize and improve the risk management system at an industrial enterprise based on key elements, namely risk assessment and management decision-making. The article reflects the methodological foundations of risk management, considers the main approaches to managing an enterprise under conditions of uncertainty, and also details the model - an algorithm for managing risks in the system of long-term enterprise management. An updated system for managing the strategic sustainability of the organization is also proposed by developing a risk management system corresponding to the stage of their formation, as well as the stage of the accompanying system. The article gives recommendations for modernizing the mechanism of long-term management of an industrial enterprise based on the integration of the main elements of risk management into a single enterprise management system.

Task. Issues devoted to the delimitation of methods and procedures of related scientific areas: risk management, economic security, management and risk management are studied and researched by many authors. This gives rise to thoughts about a single basic basis for the listed scientific movements. So, the author, in order to avoid constant repetition of listing the scientific directions under consideration in the article, calls them directions, economic categories, etc., but the problem raised by the author of the article is the differentiation of the main elements, in particular methods, procedures, goals, objectives, principles between the studied categories, namely risk management, economic security, management and risk management. The purpose of the article is to systematize the listed elements and consider their duplication in the scientific areas under consideration. Model. The author systematizes, on the basis of those reviewed by modern economists and analysts, as well as classic scientific works, the basic elements of risk management, economic security, management and risk management. An attempt was made to find an answer to the question «are there specific developed methods and techniques for risk management of an organization that would distinguish it from the risk management system and other scientific areas?» Conclusions. Economic categories: risk management, economic security, management and risk management are considered as a single process in economic research, and therefore economists do not have a clear opinion and understanding of the differences between these categories. Practical significance. A comparative analysis of the essence of the main elements of risk management, economic security, management and risk management allows us to determine the most appropriate methods and procedures for the practical application of risk management in organizations. Allows you to develop an understanding of the implementation of risk management principles in organizations to achieve their goals. Originality. The list of goals, objectives, procedures and principles of risk management, economic security, management and risk management has been clarified, expanded and systematized.

Enhancing systemic risk management to strengthen community resilience: Key recommendations from state-of-the-art practices of past complex incidents

Systemic risk management in India: An analytics perspective

Since the global financial crisis, banking regulators and academics have extended the traditional, narrow definition of to encompass concepts such as interconnectedness and shadow banking. But, at the time of writing, a definition of systemic risk that covers all of the factors that precipitated the global financial crisis is still emerging. This paper first describes the debate around the emerging definition(s) of systemic risk and discusses some of the initiatives to address systemic risk by international regulators. These initiatives include microprudential regulations, such as increasing capital for systemically important banks, and macroprudential initiatives, such as the creation of the European Systemic Risk Board. Recognizing that systemic risks arise not only from credit and market risk factors, this paper views systemic risk through the lens of operational risk, arguing that key risk factors, especially people and process risks, were pervasive across the global financial industry prior to the global financial crisis and, consequently, operational risk must be considered as a contributor to, and in some instances a trigger for, systemic risk. The paper goes on to describe the microprudential approach to operational risk within the Basel II regulations and identifies and describes operational risks that were present prior to the global financial crisis. The paper concludes that there is indeed a systemic dimension to operational risk that should be recognized and addressed by banking regulators.Finally, the paper makes some suggestions as to how the management of systemic operational risks may be addressed by banks and regulators.

Background. This paper examines the problem of improving the management efficiency of geographically distributed organizational systems characterized by complex spatial relationships and transitive risk effects. Traditional risk management approaches poorly account for spatial heterogeneity and do not provide interpretable support for management decisions. Materials and methods. To build an adaptive risk-based management system, a spatially oriented graph model is proposed. It is based on the principles of system approach and risk management, scenario-cognitive modeling, and risk mapping practices. The model is formalized as a directed weighted graph, where nodes (risks, KPIs, and control actions) have multidimensional attributes, including fuzzy and spatiotemporal damage assessments. Results. A method for cascading risk impact assessment on performance indicators and an algorithm for synthesizing control actions taking into account territorial localization are developed. The possibility of integrating the model with regional geoportals for spatial analysis, identifying vulnerable zones, and substantiating priority measures is demonstrated. Conclusions. The proposed approach provides interpretable support for management decisions under conditions of uncertainty and spatial heterogeneity, expands the focus of risk management from loss minimization to opportunity management, and is compatible with modern GIS technologies for scenario analysis and strategic planning.

Against the backdrop of the accelerating development of the digital economy, quantitative trading systems face distinctive risks arising from their high degree of automation and structural complexity, rendering traditional information system risk management approaches inadequate. Grounded in the 4M1E framework, this study systematically identifies the sources of risk in quantitative trading systems across five dimensionspersonnel, technology, data, methods, and external environmentand applies the Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP) to quantitatively evaluate and rank the weights of these risk factors. The results indicate that external environment risks and methodological risks exert the most pronounced impact on system stability, with macro-market and extreme event risks, as well as the inconsistency between backtesting and live trading, receiving the highest weights. On this basis, the study proposes a closed-loop risk management strategy encompassing stress testing, model robustness validation, and the strengthening of compliance mechanisms, with the aim of enhancing the risk resilience of quantitative trading systems.

The aim of the article is a comprehensive study of the conceptual foundations and models of integrated risk management for industrial enterprises, particularly the machine building sector in Ukraine, in the context of increasing economic uncertainty in the external environment. It has been demonstrated that the effectiveness of enterprise operations largely depends on the quality of the risk management system, which should be an integral part of strategic management. This enables the mitigation of the negative impact of uncertainty and allows risk to be used as a tool to enhance the adaptability and competitiveness of the enterprise. The advantages and disadvantages of the main risk management models are systematized. It is shown that each model has its own methodological logic and area of application; however, the highest level of efficiency is achieved through the integrated use within the corporate risk management system. The article summarizes practical recommendations for building an efficient risk management system in enterprises: establishing a risk management policy and defining strategic directions; implementing international risk management standards; developing an internal control system; involving staff at all levels in risk management processes; and automating control procedures. The research results show that an integrated risk management system, tailored to the specifics of industrial enterprises, enhances the efficiency of managerial decision-making, ensures strategic resilience, and minimizes the impact of external and internal threats. The proposed approaches provide a basis for improving corporate risk management systems in the context of transformation and increasing competition. Prospects for further research involve developing an organizational and economic mechanism for risk management that would consider modern challenges and trends in the development of industrial enterprises, as well as creating a system of indicators to evaluate the effectiveness of risk management, which will allow assessing the efficiency of managerial decisions based on quantitative and qualitative criteria.

Resilient flood-risk management at the municipal level through the lens of the Functional Resonance Analysis Model

Task. Risk management is a structured approach to identifying, assessing and minimizing risks that may affect the achievement of an organization's goals. The subject of the study is the methodology of risk management of an organization. The object of the study is the risk management system of an organization. The problems are mainly related to the fact that risk management is often based on incomplete or outdated data, which makes it difficult to accurately assess risks. Assessing the probability and consequences of risks can be subjective and depend on the opinion of experts, which can lead to erroneous conclusions. Many methodologies do not take into account uncertainty and volatility, which can lead to underestimation of risks. Risk management is sometimes not integrated into the overall strategy of the company, which makes it less effective. At the same time, new technologies, economic conditions or legislative changes can affect the outcomes. Also, the human factor and cognitive biases can affect the perception and management of risks, for example, ignoring rare but catastrophic events, and the negative influence of management culture, manifested in the lack of encouragement for open discussion of risks or the use of tools to reduce them, negatively affects the results of the organization. Model. To substantiate the methodological aspects of forming the organization's risk management in accordance with the standards. The theoretical and methodological basis of the study was the works of leading domestic and foreign scientists in the field of theory and methodology of risk management of organizations. In the course of the study, a set of general scientific and special methods was used. Analysis and synthesis were used to identify the essential characteristics and components of the risk management system. Conclusions. The methodology of forming the organization's risk management in accordance with the management standards is of theoretical significance in terms of developing scientific and theoretical provisions concerning the construction of a risk management system and improving its efficiency. Practical significance. The practical significance of the study lies in the formation of applied recommendations for forming the risk management system in the context of increasing the balance and adaptability of the organization's strategic priorities to changes in the internal and external environment. The developed methodological approaches to forming risk management, taking into account the parameters of the organization's risk sustainability, are aimed at improving the efficiency of implementing the results of activities in a positive way. Originality. Methodological aspects of forming the organization's risk management in adaptation to modern conditions of economic processes development.

Preventing the environmental risks linked to contaminated sites and guaranteeing the safety of human settlements are some of the challenges and tasks involved in the construction of world-class city clusters in the Guangdong-Hong Kong-Macao Greater Bay Area. Due to differences in the political systems and land property rights between Guangdong, Hong Kong, and Macao, as well as in the levels of urbanization, industrial structures, and environmental management capabilities of the nine cities in the Pearl River Delta, the risk management and control mode of contaminated sites varies considerably within the Greater Bay Area. In this context, an analysis of the features of risk management and control in the contaminated sites of typical cities can help strengthening technical communication and cooperation, optimizing risk management and control systems. This article briefly describes the risk management and control systems adopted for polluted sites in China; in particular it elaborates on the features of these systems in Guangzhou, Shenzhen, Dongguan, Hong Kong, and Macao, which have been subjected to monitoring, contamination assessments, and renovation procedures. During our study, the risk management and control systems adopted in different cities have been analyzed and compared; moreover, we elaborated thoughts and suggestions for land planning, policy feedback, information disclosure, and alliance mechanisms. We conclude that, overall, Hong Kong and several cities of the Pearl River Delta have established effective risk management and control systems for the polluted sites, which take into account certain local characteristics. However, with the further development and reuse of contaminated sites, the building of a world-class urban agglomeration in the Guangdong-Hong Kong-Macao Greater Bay Area will require safer, more refined, and more efficient risk management and control strategies. We highlight the need to exchange information among researchers in order to promote technical exchange and cooperation. This is particularly important for the risk management and control of polluted sites distributed within the two regions and nine cities of the Guangdong-Hong Kong-Macao Greater Bay Area, sine it would allow their safe reuse and efficient development.

Purpose of the article: development of mechanisms for solving problems of information risk management of complex systems in conditions of uncertainty and mutual influence of system elements on each other. Research method: game-theoretic mathematical modeling of risk management processes in complex systems based on arbitration schemes and multistep games on cognitive maps. The result: a general model of a complex system (for example, a heterogeneous computer network) is considered, within which the risk manager (risk-manager) carries out effective risk management by distributing the resource at his disposal among its elements (nodes of a computer network). To assess the state of the system elements, functions of local risk are proposed that satisfy certain specified requirements, and to assess the state of the system as a whole, an integral risk function is proposed. It is shown that in the case of independence (absence of mutual influence on each other) of the system elements to find an effective resource allocation, a game-theoretic approach can be used based on an arbitration scheme based on the principles of stimulation and non-suppression (MS-solution). For the case when changes in the level of risk for one element of the system can have a significant impact on the levels of risks of other elements, it is proposed to use game-theoretic models based on the MS-solution and a multistep “cognitive game”.

Purpose There is a relatively low risk management (RM) level and maturity in China’s state-owned construction enterprises (CSCEs). The purpose of this paper is to find the main factors impacting RM in practice to promote rapid, sound and sustained development in CSCEs. Design/methodology/approach There are a few state-owned CSCEs in China. Most enterprises know little about RM. Because of the limited number of RM departments in these enterprises, 200 questionnaires were sent to the enterprises to investigate the RM strategies employed by them. The research is quantitative and used a questionnaire survey to determine the important factors influencing RM practice. The collected data were analyzed with the Statistical Package for the Social Sciences to identify the most important factors affecting RM as well as the extent of influence of these factors, in order to facilitate further research. Findings The survey revealed the top eight factors (i.e. leaders’ support, personnel’s responsibility, comprehensiveness of identification, costs and benefits, risk appetite, understanding of language, frequency of training and performance management) that highly impact RM in CSCEs and the extent to which these factors impact RM. The data reveal that the average RM level is low. Some methods have been recommended to improve RM. Research limitations/implications The research lays the foundation for further RM development in CSCEs. The low RM level in CSCEs should encourage researchers to find better ways to improve RM. Some factors in the research will function as valuable guides for China’s private and public-private partnership enterprises. Practical implications A quantitative analysis methodology for RM has been developed for CSCEs that can reflect their RM level. In addition, the degree of impact of key factors on RM has been shown. The results can act as a reference to improve RM quantitatively, making the RM system more explicit in dealing with risks more accurately and instructively. Originality/value Structural RM research is utilized to evaluate RM in CSCEs by following an empirical method. With the continuous improvement in RM, CSCEs can cooperate well with construction enterprises of other countries for infrastructure projects and gain more benefits.

In recent years, the role of risk management has emerged as a key success factor in ensuring the growth on the one hand and the survival on the other hand of any organization. Moreover, dependence on IT has become systematic within any organization. This dependence therefore, implies the importance of implementation of an IT risk management system in order to well manage IT risks. There are several standards that deal with enterprise risk management in general or information security in particular. However, few standards deal with IT risk management. Noting, for example, COBIT 5 (Control Objectives for Information and related Technology) which deals with IT risk management but is complicated to deploy. The purpose of this article is to describe a simplified IT risk management maturity audit system in an organization based on “COBIT 5 for risk”. This system aims to evaluate the maturity of IT risk management before proceeding to the implementation or update of an IT risk management system within an organisation.