- Preprint Article
- 10.21203/rs.3.rs-8725908/v1
Understanding the evolution of U.S. residential housing inventory and their carbon storage contribution: Implications of alternate decay models and half-lives
- Mar 11, 2026
- Research Square
- Prakash Nepal + 5 more +5
Abstract Over 90% of U.S. homes are wood-based, making the residential construction sector both a major consumer of wood products and an important carbon sink. Understanding its long-term dynamics is critical for economic planning and carbon mitigation. Current U.S. models typically apply an exponential decay function to estimate carbon stored in wood products. However, recent research suggests this may not accurately reflect the time dynamics of wood products in housing, which remain in use for extended periods before disposal. This study compares the projections of U.S. single-family, multifamily, and manufactured housing inventories and associated carbon stocks from 2022 to 2070 using the conventional exponential decay model and an alternative chi- squared decay model, combined with three half-live assumptions (short, base, and long). Results reveal substantial differences in projected outcomes: under exponential decay, U.S. housing inventory declines, depending on half-life assumption, by 3 to 19% relative to 2022 levels, while chi-squared decay shows reductions of 3 to 52%. In contrast, total carbon stocks in housing inventory increase in the exponential model with all three half-life assumptions (14% to 16% relative to 2022 levels) and the chi-squared decay model with base and long half-life assumptions (10 to 18%). However, they decrease slightly (1%) for the chi-squared decay model with the short half-life assumption. These findings highlight the housing sector’s role in carbon storage and calls for a need to empirically validate decay functions and half-life parameters using updated time series data to improve long-term projections of housing inventories and associated carbon stocks.
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