An Optimized Artificial Neural Network Model using Genetic Algorithm for Prediction of Traffic Emission Concentrations

Castellated steel beams (CSB) are an attractive option for the steel construction industry thanks to outstanding advantages, such as the ability to exceed large span, lightweight, and allowing flexible arrangement of the technical pipes through beams. In addition, the complex localized and global failures characterizing these structural members have led researchers to focus on the development of efficient design guidelines. This paper aims to propose an artificial neural network (ANN) model with optimal architecture to predict the load‐carrying capacity of CSB with a scheme of the simple beam bearing load located at the center of the beam. The ANN model is built with 9 input variables, which are essential parameters equivalent to the geometrical properties and mechanical properties of the material, such as the overall depth of the castellated beam, the vertical projection of the inclined side of the opening, the web thickness, the flange width, the flange thickness, the width of web post at middepth, the horizontal projection of inclined side of the opening, the minimum web yield stress, and the minimum flange yield stress. The output variable is the load‐carrying capacity of the CSB. With the optimal ANN architecture [9‐1‐1] containing one hidden layer, the performance of the ANN model is evaluated based on statistical criteria such as R2, RMSE, and MAE. The results show that the optimal ANN model is a highly effective predictor of the load‐carrying capacity of the CSB with the best value of R2 = 0.989, RMSE = 3.328, and MAE = 2.620 for the testing part. The ANN model seems to be the best algorithm of machine learning for predicting the CSB load‐carrying capacity.

این مطالعه به منظور بررسی پیش بینی شاخص های عملکرد تولیدی در مرغان تخم گذار با استفاده از شبکه های عصبی مصنوعی و رگرسیون غیرخطی چندگانه انجام شد. بررسی بر روی اطلاعات چهار دوره متوالی پرورش در یک واحد پرورش مرغ تخم گذار صورت گرفت. روش های داده-کاوی شامل رگرسیون خطی و غیر خطی، شبکه عصبی پرسپترون سه لایه، شبکه عصبی پرسپترون چهار لایه و شبکه عصبی با تابع پایه ای شعاعی بود. در این مدل ها از متغیرهای سن گله، میزان خوراک مصرفی و فصل تولید به عنوان متغیر پیشگو و شاخص های عملکرد تولیدی شامل درصد تخم-گذاری، وزن توده ای تخم مرغ تولیدی و ضریب تبدیل غذایی به عنوان متغیر پاسخ استفاده شد. نتایج نهایی رگرسیون های خطی نشان داد که برای تمامی متغیرهای وابسته مورد مطالعه متغیر مستقل سن گله معنی دار می باشد. بنابراین رگرسیون غیر خطی شاخص های عملکرد تولیدی در مقابل سن برای مقایسه با شبکه های عصبی مختلف مورد بررسی قرار گرفت و برای مقایسه کلیه مدل ها از ضریب تعیین (R2) و میانگین قدر مطلق خطا (MAE) استفاده شد. نتایج نشان داد بین شبکه های عصبی مصنوعی مختلف مورد مطالعه، شبکه با تابع پایه ای شعاعی بهتر از سایر مدل های در پیش‌بینی شاخص های عملکرد تولیدی مرغان تخم گذار عمل می کند.

To develop a logistic regression model, artificial neural network (ANN) model and decision tree (DT) model for the progression of mild cognitive impairment (MCI) to Alzheimer's disease (AD) to compare the performance of the three models. A total of 425 patients with MCI were screened from the original cohort. The actual follow up included 361 patients, with AD as the outcome variable. Three kinds of prediction models were developed: a logistic regression model, ANN model and DT model. The performance of all three models was measured with accuracy, sensitivity, positive predictive value and area under the receiver operating characteristic curve. A total of 121 patients with MCI developed AD, and the average conversion rate was 9.49% per year. The ANN model had higher accuracy (89.52 ± 0.36%), area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (92.08 ± 0.12), sensitivity (82.11 ± 0.42%) and positive predictive value (75.26 ± 0.86%) than the other two models. The first five important predictors of the ANN model were, in order, ADL score, age, urine AD-associated neuronal thread protein, alcohol consumption and smoking. For the DT model, they were age, activities of daily living score, family history of dementia, urine AD-associated neuronal thread protein and alcohol consumption. For the logistic regression model, they were age, sex, activities of daily living score, alcohol consumption and smoking. The logistic regression, ANN and DT models performed well at predicting the transition from MCI to AD with ideal stability. However, the ANN model had the best predictive value. Increased age, activities of daily living score, urine AD-associated neuronal thread protein, alcohol consumption, smoking and sex were important factors. Geriatr Gerontol Int 2021; 21: 43-47.

Using neural networks to predict thermal conductivity of food as a function of moisture content, temperature and apparent porosity

Artificial Neural Networks (ANNs) models play an increasingly significant role in accurate time series prediction tools. However, an accurate time series forecasting using ANN requires an optimal model. Hence, great forecasting methods have been developed from optimized ANN models. Most of them focus more on input variables selection and preprocessing, topologies selection, optimum configuration and its associated parameters regardless of their input variables disposition. This paper provides an investigation of the effects of input variables disposition on ANNs models on training and forecasting performances. After investigation, a new ANNs optimization approach is proposed, consisting of finding optimal input variables disposition from the possible combinations. Therefore, a modified Back-Propagation neural networks training algorithm is presented in this paper. This proposed approach is applied to optimize the feed-forward and recurrent neural networks architectures; both built using traditional techniques, and pursuing to forecast the wind speed. Furthermore, the proposed approach is tested in a collaborative optimization method with single-objective optimization technique. Thus, Genetic Algorithm Back-Propagation neural networks aim to improve the forecasting accuracy relative to traditional methods was proposed. The experiment results demonstrate the requirement to take into consideration the input variables disposition to build a more optimal ANN model. They reveal that each proposed model is superior to its old considered model in terms of forecasting accuracy and thus show that the proposed optimization approach can be useful for time series forecasting accuracy improvement.

BackgroundLumbar drainage is widely used in the clinic; however, forecasting lumbar drainage-related meningitis (LDRM) is limited. We aimed to establish prediction models using supervised machine learning (ML) algorithms.MethodsWe utilized a cohort of 273 eligible lumbar drainage cases. Data were preprocessed and split into training and testing sets. Optimal hyper-parameters were archived by 10-fold cross-validation and grid search. The support vector machine (SVM), random forest (RF), and artificial neural network (ANN) were adopted for model training. The area under the operating characteristic curve (AUROC) and precision-recall curve (AUPRC), true positive ratio (TPR), true negative ratio (TNR), specificity, sensitivity, accuracy, and kappa coefficient were used for model evaluation. All trained models were internally validated. The importance of features was also analyzed.ResultsIn the training set, all the models had AUROC exceeding 0.8. SVM and the RF models had an AUPRC of more than 0.6, but the ANN model had an unexpectedly low AUPRC (0.380). The RF and ANN models revealed similar TPR, whereas the ANN model had a higher TNR and demonstrated better specificity, sensitivity, accuracy, and kappa efficiency. In the testing set, most performance indicators of established models decreased. However, the RF and AVM models maintained adequate AUROC (0.828 vs. 0.719) and AUPRC (0.413 vs. 0.520), and the RF model also had better TPR, specificity, sensitivity, accuracy, and kappa efficiency. Site leakage showed the most considerable mean decrease in accuracy.ConclusionsThe RF and SVM models could predict LDRM, in which the RF model owned the best performance, and site leakage was the most meaningful predictor.

The low-cost and small size solid-state sensor arrays are suitable to implement a wide-area electronic nose (e-nose) for real-time air quality monitoring. However, accuracy of these low-cost sensors is not adequate for precise measurements of pollutant concentrations. Artificial neural network (ANN) estimation models are used for the soft calibration of low-cost sensor array measurements and significantly improve the accuracy of low-cost multi-sensor measurements. However, optimality of neural architecture affects the performance of ANN estimation models, and optimization of the ANN architecture for a training data set is essential to improve data-driven modeling performance of ANNs to reach optimal neural complexity and improved generalization. In this study, an optimal architecture ANN estimator design scheme is suggested to improve the estimation performance of ANN models for e-nose applications. To this end, a gray wolf optimization (GWO) algorithm is modified, and an exploitative alpha gray wolf optimization (EA-GWO) algorithm is suggested. This modification enhances local exploitation skill of the best alpha gray wolf search agent, and thus allows the fine-tuning of ANN architectures by minimizing a multi-objective cost function that implements mean error search policy. Experimental study demonstrates the effectiveness of optimal architecture ANN models to estimate CO concentration from the low-cost multi-sensor data.

BackgroundThis study aimed to develop an artificial neural network (ANN) model for predicting synchronous organ-specific metastasis in lung cancer (LC) patients.MethodsA total of 62,151 patients who diagnosed as LC without data missing between 2010 and 2015 were identified from Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results (SEER) program. The ANN model was trained and tested on an 75/25 split of the dataset. The receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curves, area under the curve (AUC) and sensitivity were used to evaluate and compare the ANN model with the random forest model.ResultsFor distant metastasis in the whole cohort, the ANN model had metrics AUC = 0.759, accuracy = 0.669, sensitivity = 0.906, and specificity = 0.613, which was better than the random forest model. For organ-specific metastasis in the cohort with distant metastasis, the sensitivity in bone metastasis, brain metastasis and liver metastasis were 0.913, 0.906 and 0.925, respectively. The most important variable was separate tumor nodules with 100% importance. The second important variable was visceral pleural invasion for distant metastasis, while histology for organ-specific metastasis.ConclusionsOur study developed a “two-step” ANN model for predicting synchronous organ-specific metastasis in LC patients. This ANN model may provide clinicians with more personalized clinical decisions, contribute to rationalize metastasis screening, and reduce the burden on patients and the health care system.

BackgroundThis study assesses the feasibility of using machine learning methods such as Random Forests (RF), Artificial Neural Networks (ANN), Support Vector Regression (SVR) and Self-Organizing Feature Maps (SOM) to identify and determine factors associated with hypertensive patients’ adherence levels. Hypertension is the medical term for systolic and diastolic blood pressure higher than 140/90 mmHg. A conventional medication adherence scale was used to identify patients’ adherence to their prescribed medication. Using machine learning applications to predict precise numeric adherence scores in hypertensive patients has not yet been reported in the literature.MethodsData from 160 hypertensive patients from a tertiary hospital in Kuala Lumpur, Malaysia, were used in this study. Variables were ranked based on their significance to adherence levels using the RF variable importance method. The backward elimination method was then performed using RF to obtain the variables significantly associated with the patients’ adherence levels. RF, SVR and ANN models were developed to predict adherence using the identified significant variables. Visualizations of the relationships between hypertensive patients’ adherence levels and variables were generated using SOM.ResultMachine learning models constructed using the selected variables reported RMSE values of 1.42 for ANN, 1.53 for RF, and 1.55 for SVR. The accuracy of the dichotomised scores, calculated based on a percentage of correctly identified adherence values, was used as an additional model performance measure, resulting in accuracies of 65% (ANN), 78% (RF) and 79% (SVR), respectively. The Wilcoxon signed ranked test reported that there was no significant difference between the predictions of the machine learning models and the actual scores. The significant variables identified from the RF variable importance method were educational level, marital status, General Overuse, monthly income, and Specific Concern.ConclusionThis study suggests an effective alternative to conventional methods in identifying the key variables to understand hypertensive patients’ adherence levels. This can be used as a tool to educate patients on the importance of medication in managing hypertension.

GIS-based mineral prospectivity mapping using machine learning methods: A case study from Tongling ore district, eastern China

Objectives:Mandible osteoradionecrosis (ORN) is one of the most severe toxicities in patients with head and neck cancer (HNC) undergoing radiotherapy (RT). The existing literature focuses on the correlation of mandible ORN and clinical and dosimetric factors. This study proposes the use of machine learning (ML) methods as prediction models for mandible ORN incidence.Methods:A total of 96 patients (ORN incidence ratio of 1:1) treated between 2011 and 2015 were selected from the local HNC toxicity database. Demographic, clinical and dosimetric data (based on the mandible dose–volume histogram) were considered as model variables. Prediction accuracy (measured using a stratified fivefold nested cross-validation), sensitivity, specificity, precision and negative predictive value were used to evaluate the prediction performance of a multivariate logistic regression (LR) model, a support vector machine (SVM) model, a random forest (RF) model, an adaptive boosting (AdaBoost) model and an artificial neural network (ANN) model. The different models were compared based on their prediction accuracy and using the McNemar’s hypothesis test.Results:The ANN model (77% accuracy), closely followed by the SVM (76%), AdaBoost (75%) and LR (75%) models, showed the highest overall prediction accuracy. The RF model (71%) showed the lowest prediction accuracy. However, based on the McNemar’s test applied to all model pair combinations, no statistically significant difference between the models was found.Conclusion:Based on our results, we encourage the use of ML-based prediction models for ORN incidence as has already been done for other HNC toxicity end points.Advances in knowledge:This research opens a new path towards personalised RT for HNC using ML to predict mandible ORN incidence.

In this paper, cell loading and shipment method optimisation problem in a cellular manufacturing system are studied. A hierarchical methodology that consists of mathematical optimisation model, genetic algorithms (GAs) and artificial neural networks (ANNs) were proposed. The mathematical model is compared with the GA in terms of the optimisation performance. Next, ANN model was developed as decision support tool to study the impact of GA parameters on the solution quality. Several problem sizes were experimented with the proposed GA and the mathematical model, and compared. GA was run to make a total of 648 sample solutions for the 20-job problem. Next, ANN model was built based on the sample solutions' data and the optimal ANN model is identified out of 1,000 networks. The results were also coupled with sensitivity and statistical analyses, which indicated that type of crossover and mutation operators, had the greatest impact on the solution quality.

The soil respiration (Rs) of forests is a major component of global Rs, yet few studies have focused on it. This study aimed to estimate global forest Rs and its changes at a resolution of 30 m via an artificial neural network (ANN) model. Five input candidates representing forest type, climatic, soil, and geographical information, as well as 1472 satisfactory forest Rs records, were used to build the ANN model and evaluate the model performance via a 10‐fold cross‐validation scheme. Global forest change data sets were used to accurately define the extent of forests and their changes, which was achievable because of the dynamic information and high resolution (30 m) of the data sets. The results indicate that the average annual global forest Rs from 2000 to 2020, as estimated by the optimal ANN model with an r2 value of 0.67 and a root‐mean‐square error of 252.6 g C m−2 yr−1, was 46.24 ± 5.86 Pg C yr−1. From 2001 to 2019, the average theoretical annual global forest Rs loss was 0.22 ± 0.06 Pg C yr−1 due to an average forest loss area of 23.4 million ha yr−1. In addition, the annual Rs theoretically increased by 0.75 Pg C in 2012 due to a global forest gain area of 80.5 million from 2001 to 2012. The presented data sets of global forest Rs and its changes can provide an accurate benchmark for discussing the carbon cycle and climate change at global to regional scales, even when operating over a small forest area (i.e., dozens of ha), which is a scale that has been ignored in other global Rs studies.

Identification of the green tea grade level using electronic tongue and pattern recognition

Machine learning-based prediction of seasonal groundwater quality for urbanized parts of Melur (Tamil Nadu), India