Conceivably Urgent Actions Could Provide Extreme Benefit

At the end of December 2019, cases of pneumonia of unknown etiology were registered in China. The cause represented by the novel coronavirus SARS-CoV-2 was established later. The infection has spread rapidly around the world. According to the latest official data, over 531,959,093 cases of the infection and over 6,299,068 confirmed COVID-19-related mortality cases were reported in 215 countries. The study aimed to examine characteristic features of the novel coronavirus pandemic in Russia, Brazil, and India from April 2020 to March 2022. Official statistical data on COVID-19-related morbidity, mortality, and vaccination from the websites of the Russian Federal State Agency for Health and Consumer Rights and Johns Hopkins Institute were collected for every country from April 01, 2020, to March 01, 2022. Out of the three examined countries, the highest incidence and mortality for COVID-19 per one million people were found in Brazil, followed by Russia and India respectively. The level of vaccination was the highest in Brazil (73%). It was followed by India (53%) and Russia (50%). The Delta variant of the virus was first identified in India in October 2020. In June of the next year, it accounted for the majority of COVID-19 cases registered in three countries. The same was true for the Omicron variant. Despite the efforts taken within the last two years to contain COVID-19 (development of vaccines, use of other antiepidemic agents), the coronavirus infection is still of cyclical patterns along with increased morbidity. Based on the obtained data, massive vaccination effectively reduced mortality due to COVID-19 though many new variants occurred.

Social-distancing measures were among the very few available policy responses to the initial outbreak of COVID-19, and they remain an important tool for containing recurring wavers of this and possible future pandemics. However, policies aiming at limiting the intensity of people-to-people contacts incur substantial socio-economic costs while their effectiveness varies over time and across locations. Having a robust way of measuring the level of people-to-people contacts and monitoring compliance with social-distancing policies would greatly aid governments in better calibrating their responses to future pandemic outbreaks. In this paper we use the case example of the Yandex’s self-isolation index to explore the potential of composite indices that aggregate multiple sources of activity data collected by digital platforms as proxies for evaluating the people-to-people contact intensity. To this end, we propose two error-corrected autoregressive distributed-lag models, inspired by the classical SIR model of infectious disease dynamics, and use them in testing for cointegration between the self-isolation index and the official data on the numbers of new COVID-19 cases and deaths, for the two largest cities in Russia, Moscow and St. Petersburg. We have found evidence for such cointegration, which confirms that the COVID-19 epidemic curve can be explained by the level of people-to-people contact intensity as measured by the self-isolation index. Our findings suggest that the self-isolation index is a useful real-time indicator of the level of compliance with social distancing measures in the population and thus can serve as a reliable tool for informing policymaking.Supplementary InformationThe online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1038/s41598-025-24240-z.

Proactive efforts towards the development of new vaccines and antivirals, and the elimination of bottlenecks in vaccine development, will be essential to containing and eradicating future pandemics.

Streamlined and accelerated nonclinical development of COVID-19 vaccines and therapeutics - an IQ consortium DruSafe survey.

Influenza A virus infection is a zoonosis. The natural reservoirs of the viruses are migratory water birds, particularly ducks. Through a process of reassortment of the genomes of avian and human influenza viruses, novel virus strains may arise to which humans are not immune. Such a virus can spread rapidly throughout populations as a pandemic, usually with serious consequences. Effective preparedness for future influenza pandemics depends on robust global surveillance of avian, swine, mammalian, and human influenza and continuous updating of our Library of Influenza Viruses from these hosts to aid diagnosis and vaccine production. Enhancing and refining strategies for controlling seasonal influenza, including the development of more potent vaccines and therapeutic medicines, that can be seamlessly implemented when a new influenza virus emerges is crucial. This review, which draws on more than half a century of our research on the ecology of influenza viruses, describes how pandemic influenza viruses arise and outlines strategies for preparedness against future pandemics.

Vaccines have evolved as widely applicable and available prophylaxes against infectious diseases. Advances in ribonucleic acid technologies revolutionized the biopharmaceutical field of vaccine manufacturing. Numerous novel mRNA-based vaccines that have been approved by the United States and European regulatory agencies are proven to be safe and effective in preventing disease. This chapter presents the history of RNA vaccine development in the context of preventing diseases caused by RNA viruses such as SARS-CoV-2, HIV, influenza, Chikungunya, Zika, RSV, PIV, HMPV viruses, Rabies, and Ebola. Advantages, disadvantages, and challenges in mRNA vaccine engineering, delivery, and safety are discussed. The formulation, safety, long-term effectiveness, and requirements for booster immunizations are presented using data from clinical trials. The results of these clinical trials highlight important milestones, setbacks, and ultimate advancements in vaccine development. mRNA vaccines have significantly impacted public health in a relatively short time, and they demonstrate great potential in serving as clinical public health prophylaxis against current and future pandemics. Future development is likely to include polyvalent, mosaic, and strain/lineage-specific individualized vaccines.

The COVID-19 pandemic has had profound implications for the economics of vaccine development and distribution, revealing both achievements and disparities in global health systems. This narrative review examines the economic frameworks that shaped COVID-19 vaccine R&D, distribution logistics, and pricing strategies, with a focus on lessons for future pandemics. A thematic analysis of the literature was conducted, including peer-reviewed articles, government reports, and industry publications. Databases such as PubMed, Google Scholar, JSTOR, Scopus, and World Health Organization (WHO) archives were searched using terms like “COVID-19 vaccine economics,” “vaccine distribution costs,” and “pandemic preparedness.” Inclusion criteria focused on studies examining economic models of vaccine development and distribution, while studies limited to clinical outcomes were excluded. Key findings highlight the critical role of public-private partnerships in accelerating vaccine development through shared financial risk, until now also revealing significant inequities in global access, exacerbated by pricing strategies that favored high-income countries. Logistical challenges, particularly cold chain storage and distribution, further delayed access in low- and middle-income countries. The review emphasizes the need for resilient global supply chains, innovative financing models, and equitable pricing frameworks to ensure fair vaccine access in future pandemics. Addressing these issues is essential for a more effective and fair global health response.

A wide variety of symptoms is associated with Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome Coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) infection, and these symptoms can overlap with other conditions and diseases. Knowing the distribution of symptoms across diseases and individuals can support clinical actions on timelines shorter than those for drug and vaccine development. Here, we focus on zinc deficiency symptoms, symptom overlap with other conditions, as well as zinc effects on immune health and mechanistic zinc deficiency risk groups. There are well-studied beneficial effects of zinc on the immune system including a decreased susceptibility to and improved clinical outcomes for infectious pathogens including multiple viruses. Zinc is also an anti-inflammatory and anti-oxidative stress agent, relevant to some severe Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19) symptoms. Unfortunately, zinc deficiency is common worldwide and not exclusive to the developing world. Lifestyle choices and preexisting conditions alone can result in zinc deficiency, and we compile zinc risk groups based on a review of the literature. It is also important to distinguish chronic zinc deficiency from deficiency acquired upon viral infection and immune response and their different supplementation strategies. Zinc is being considered as prophylactic or adjunct therapy for COVID-19, with 12 clinical trials underway, highlighting the relevance of this trace element for global pandemics. Using the example of zinc, we show that there is a critical need for a deeper understanding of essential trace elements in human health, and the resulting deficiency symptoms and their overlap with other conditions. This knowledge will directly support human immune health for decreasing susceptibility, shortening illness duration, and preventing progression to severe cases in the current and future pandemics.

The COVID-19 pandemic has profoundly impacted India, presenting a dual spectrum of challenges and opportunities. This article explores the chronological timeline of events, beginning with the outbreak in China and its subsequent global spread, highlighting key dates and developments in India. It discusses the transformation of healthcare systems through expanded testing capabilities, triage systems, and the rapid adoption of online platforms and IT technologies. The manufacturing sector pivoted to produce essential supplies like masks and personal protective equipment (PPE) kits, while advancements in vaccine development and therapeutic treatments, including ventilators and oxygen supply, became pivotal in managing the crisis. The pandemic also catalyzed initiatives like Mahatma Gandhi National Rural Employment Guarantee Act (MGNREGA) for employment and highlighted new health challenges such as mucormycosis. Moreover, it spurred advancements in AI and machine learning, bolstered telemedicine adoption, and revealed lessons for future pandemics. The article concludes with recommendations for enhancing healthcare capacity, leveraging collaborations like the Swasth Express initiative and anticipating future pandemics through strategic policy frameworks.

Chapter 28 - COVID-19 and big data technologies: Experience in China

The COVID-19 outbreak and response has been characterized by institutional missteps, media misinformation, and economic and social upheavals. This book is intended to de-mystify and inform in a succinct and straightforward text. The lessons shared are applicable to other infectious diseases and future inevitable pandemics. Readers will learn about the origins of COVID-19, the disease it causes, tests and how they work, therapeutics and prophylactic measures such as vaccines. This text prepares readers to be better able to respond to future emerging infectious diseases and pandemics. Key Features Positively influences career choices within public health Applies basic science to problems raised by the COVID-19 pandemic such as vaccine development and herd immunity Prepares readers with context and tactics for understanding future infectious disease outbreaks Successfully used in college senior health sciences seminars Engaging and balanced treatment of the politicization of public health issues, especially COVID-19 Related Titles Goswami, S. & C. Day, eds. COVID-19 and SARS-CoV-2: The Science and Clinical Application of Conventional and Complimentary Treatments (ISBN 9781032011950). Koley, T. K. & M. Dhole. The COVID-19 Pandemic: The Deadly Coronavirus Outbreak (ISBN 9780367558895). Ryan, J. M., ed. COVID-19 – Two volume set (ISBN 9780367740610).

Vaccine development, in most cases, is a long, complex process, often lasting years and involving a combination of public and private stakeholders. Particularly, the vaccine clinical development process is highly regulated by several guidelines, regulatory pathways and science-based recommendations from experts. Designing and executing a successful clinical development plan for any candidate vaccine requires a solid scientific, medical, operational and regulatory knowledge and expertise, to comply with regulations and assure adequate benefit-risk balance for the product to be used in mass vaccination of healthy populations. The purpose of this study was to assess the approaches and practices related to Clinical Development functions, and related activities among vaccine manufacturers based in emerging countries, and to identify industry needs in terms of organizational development and training needs. A structured questionnaire designed specifically for assessing indicators of clinical activities, in the last five years, comprised of four sections aimed to collect information on (1) the organizational structure and the activities conducted by the clinical functions; (2) the clinical trial design ability and the management of clinical trial documents; (3) the clinical trial management and monitoring activities; (4) the quality aspects of clinical activities. The results suggest that the great majority of respondents is engaged in intense clinical development activities, as indicated by the high number of licensed vaccines available and supplied in the national markets or in foreign markets, including vaccines with WHO prequalification status. Areas to further strengthen the clinical activities and medical research preparedness were identified. Greater engagements of stakeholders' and investments will be required to expand the clinical basis in vaccine R&D, and to support achieving a high level of preparedness in emerging countries, for development of new vaccines against future regional epidemics and global pandemics.

BackgroundA number of different malaria vaccine candidates are currently in pre-clinical or clinical development. Even though they vary greatly in their characteristics, it is unlikely that any of them will provide long-lasting sterilizing immunity against the malaria parasite. There is great uncertainty about what the minimal vaccine profile should be before registration is worthwhile; how to allocate resources between different candidates with different profiles; which candidates to consider combining; and what deployment strategies to consider.Methods and FindingsWe use previously published stochastic simulation models, calibrated against extensive epidemiological data, to make quantitative predictions of the population effects of malaria vaccines on malaria transmission, morbidity and mortality. The models are fitted and simulations obtained via volunteer computing. We consider a range of endemic malaria settings with deployment of vaccines via the Expanded program on immunization (EPI), with and without additional booster doses, and also via 5-yearly mass campaigns for a range of coverages. The simulation scenarios account for the dynamic effects of natural and vaccine induced immunity, for treatment of clinical episodes, and for births, ageing and deaths in the cohort. Simulated pre-erythrocytic vaccines have greatest benefits in low endemic settings (<EIR of 10.5) where between 12% and 14% of all deaths are averted when initial efficacy is 50%. In some high transmission scenarios (>EIR of 84) PEV may lead to increased incidence of severe disease in the long term, if efficacy is moderate to low (<70%). Blood stage vaccines (BSV) are most useful in high transmission settings, and are comparable to PEV for low transmission settings. Combinations of PEV and BSV generally perform little better than the best of the contributing components. A minimum half-life of protection of 2–3 years appears to be a precondition for substantial epidemiological effects. Herd immunity effects can be achieved with even moderately effective (>20%) malaria vaccines (either PEV or BSV) when deployed through mass campaigns targeting all age-groups as well as EPI, and especially if combined with highly efficacious transmission-blocking components.ConclusionsWe present for the first time a stochastic simulation approach to compare likely effects on morbidity, mortality and transmission of a range of malaria vaccines and vaccine combinations in realistic epidemiological and health systems settings. The results raise several issues for vaccine clinical development, in particular appropriateness of vaccine types for different transmission settings; the need to assess transmission to the vector and duration of protection; and the importance of deployment additional to the EPI, which again may make the issue of number of doses required more critical. To test the validity and robustness of our conclusions there is a need for further modeling (and, of course, field research) using alternative formulations for both natural and vaccine induced immunity. Evaluation of alternative deployment strategies outside EPI needs to consider the operational implications of different approaches to mass vaccination.

The COVID-19 pandemic placed hygiene at the centre of disease prevention. Yet, access to the levels of water supply that support good hand hygiene and institutional cleaning, our understanding of hygiene behaviours, and access to soap are deficient in low-, middle- and high-income countries. This paper reviews the role of water, sanitation and hygiene (WaSH) in disease emergence, previous outbreaks, combatting COVID-19 and in preparing for future pandemics. We consider settings where these factors are particularly important and identify key preventive contributions to disease control and gaps in the evidence base. Urgent substantial action is required to remedy deficiencies in WaSH, particularly the provision of reliable, continuous piped water on-premises for all households and settings. Hygiene promotion programmes, underpinned by behavioural science, must be adapted to high-risk populations (such as the elderly and marginalised) and settings (such as healthcare facilities, transport hubs and workplaces). WaSH must be better integrated into preparation plans and with other sectors in prevention efforts. More finance and better use of financing instruments would extend and improve WaSH services. The lessons outlined justify no-regrets investment by government in response to and recovery from the current pandemic; to improve day-to-day lives and as preparedness for future pandemics.

Bioprinting for combating infectious diseases