Early Prediction of Alzheimer’s Disease Using Interpretable Machine Learning Algorithms

Background Interpretable machine learning (ML) for early detection of cancer has the potential to improve risk assessment and early intervention. Methods Data from 261 proteins related to inflammation and/or tumor processes in 123 blood samples collected from healthy persons, but of whom a sub‐group later developed squamous cell carcinoma of the oral tongue (SCCOT), were analyzed. Samples from people who developed SCCOT within less than 5 years were classified as tumor‐to‐be and all other samples as tumor‐free. The optimal ML algorithm for feature selection was identified and feature importance computed by the SHapley Additive exPlanations (SHAP) method. Five popular ML algorithms (AdaBoost, Artificial neural networks [ANNs], Decision Tree [DT], eXtreme Gradient Boosting [XGBoost], and Support Vector Machine [SVM]) were applied to establish prediction models, and decisions of the optimal models were interpreted by SHAP. Results Using the 22 selected features, the SVM prediction model showed the best performance (sensitivity = 0.867, specificity = 0.859, balanced accuracy = 0.863, area under the receiver operating characteristic curve [ROC‐AUC] = 0.924). SHAP analysis revealed that the 22 features rendered varying person‐specific impacts on model decision and the top three contributors to prediction were Interleukin 10 (IL10), TNF Receptor Associated Factor 2 (TRAF2), and Kallikrein Related Peptidase 12 (KLK12). Conclusion Using multidimensional plasma protein analysis and interpretable ML, we outline a systematic approach for early detection of SCCOT before the appearance of clinical signs.

Developing Machine Learning (ML) algorithms for heterogeneous/mixed data is a longstanding problem. Many ML algorithms are not applicable to mixed data, which include numeric and non-numeric data, text, graphs and so on to generate interpretable models. Another longstanding problem is developing algorithms for lossless visualization of multidimensional mixed data. The further progress in ML heavily depends on success interpretable ML algorithms for mixed data and lossless interpretable visualization of multidimensional data. The later allows developing interpretable ML models using visual knowledge discovery by end-users, who can bring valuable domain knowledge which is absent in the training data. The challenges for mixed data include: (1) generating numeric coding schemes for non-numeric attributes for numeric ML algorithms to provide accurate and interpretable ML models, (2) generating methods for lossless visualization of n-D non-numeric data and visual rule discovery in these visualizations. This paper presents a classification of mixed data types, analyzes their importance for ML and present the developed experimental toolkit to deal with mixed data. It combines the Data Types Editor, VisCanvas data visualization and rule discovery system which is available on GitHub.

BACKGROUND Acute kidney injury (AKI) is a common adverse outcome following nephrectomy. The progression from AKI to acute kidney disease (AKD) and subsequently to chronic kidney disease (CKD) remains a concern; yet, the predictive mechanisms for these transitions are not fully understood. Interpretable machine learning (ML) models offer insights into how clinical features influence long-term renal function outcomes after nephrectomy, providing a more precise framework for identifying patients at risk and supporting improved clinical decision-making processes. OBJECTIVE This study aimed to (1) evaluate postnephrectomy rates of AKI, AKD, and CKD, analyzing long-term renal outcomes along different trajectories; (2) interpret AKD and CKD models using Shapley Additive Explanations values and Local Interpretable Model-Agnostic Explanations algorithm; and (3) develop a web-based tool for estimating AKD or CKD risk after nephrectomy. METHODS We conducted a retrospective cohort study involving patients who underwent nephrectomy between July 2012 and June 2019. Patient data were randomly split into training, validation, and test sets, maintaining a ratio of 76.5:8.5:15. Eight ML algorithms were used to construct predictive models for postoperative AKD and CKD. The performance of the best-performing models was assessed using various metrics. We used various Shapley Additive Explanations plots and Local Interpretable Model-Agnostic Explanations bar plots to interpret the model and generated directed acyclic graphs to explore the potential causal relationships between features. Additionally, we developed a web-based prediction tool using the top 10 features for AKD prediction and the top 5 features for CKD prediction. RESULTS The study cohort comprised 1559 patients. Incidence rates for AKI, AKD, and CKD were 21.7% (n=330), 15.3% (n=238), and 10.6% (n=165), respectively. Among the evaluated ML models, the Light Gradient-Boosting Machine (LightGBM) model demonstrated superior performance, with an area under the receiver operating characteristic curve of 0.97 for AKD prediction and 0.96 for CKD prediction. Performance metrics and plots highlighted the model’s competence in discrimination, calibration, and clinical applicability. Operative duration, hemoglobin, blood loss, urine protein, and hematocrit were identified as the top 5 features associated with predicted AKD. Baseline estimated glomerular filtration rate, pathology, trajectories of renal function, age, and total bilirubin were the top 5 features associated with predicted CKD. Additionally, we developed a web application using the LightGBM model to estimate AKD and CKD risks. CONCLUSIONS An interpretable ML model effectively elucidated its decision-making process in identifying patients at risk of AKD and CKD following nephrectomy by enumerating critical features. The web-based calculator, found on the LightGBM model, can assist in formulating more personalized and evidence-based clinical strategies.

An intrusion detection system (IDS) is an important protection instrument for detecting complex network attacks. Various machine learning (ML) or deep learning (DL) algorithms have been proposed for implementing anomaly-based IDS (AIDS). Our review of the AIDS literature identifies some issues in related work, including the randomness of the selected algorithms, parameters, and testing criteria, the application of old datasets, or shallow analyses and validation of the results. This paper comprehensively reviews previous studies on AIDS by using a set of criteria with different datasets and types of attacks to set benchmarking outcomes that can reveal the suitable AIDS algorithms, parameters, and testing criteria. Specifically, this paper applies 10 popular supervised and unsupervised ML algorithms for identifying effective and efficient ML-AIDS of networks and computers. These supervised ML algorithms include the artificial neural network (ANN), decision tree (DT), k-nearest neighbor (k-NN), naive Bayes (NB), random forest (RF), support vector machine (SVM), and convolutional neural network (CNN) algorithms, whereas the unsupervised ML algorithms include the expectation-maximization (EM), k-means, and self-organizing maps (SOM) algorithms. Several models of these algorithms are introduced, and the turning and training parameters of each algorithm are examined to achieve an optimal classifier evaluation. Unlike previous studies, this study evaluates the performance of AIDS by measuring the true positive and negative rates, accuracy, precision, recall, and F-Score of 31 ML-AIDS models. The training and testing time for ML-AIDS models are also considered in measuring their performance efficiency given that time complexity is an important factor in AIDSs. The ML-AIDS models are tested by using a recent and highly unbalanced multiclass CICIDS2017 dataset that involves real-world network attacks. In general, the k-NN-AIDS, DT-AIDS, and NB-AIDS models obtain the best results and show a greater capability in detecting web attacks compared with other models that demonstrate irregular and inferior results.

Current maintenance intervals of mechanical systems are scheduled a priori based on the life of the system, resulting in expensive maintenance scheduling, and often undermining the safety of passengers. Going forward, the actual usage of a vehicle will be used to predict stresses in its structure, and therefore, to define a specific maintenance scheduling. Machine learning (ML) algorithms can be used to map a reduced set of data coming from real-time measurements of a structure into a detailed/high-fidelity finite element analysis (FEA) model of the same system. As a result, the FEA-based ML approach will directly estimate the stress distribution over the entire system during operations, thus improving the ability to define ad-hoc, safe, and efficient maintenance procedures. The paper initially presents a review of the current state-of-the-art of ML methods applied to finite elements. A surrogate finite element approach based on ML algorithms is also proposed to estimate the time-varying response of a one-dimensional beam. Several ML regression models, such as decision trees and artificial neural networks, have been developed, and their performance is compared for direct estimation of the stress distribution over a beam structure. The surrogate finite element models based on ML algorithms are able to estimate the response of the beam accurately, with artificial neural networks providing more accurate results.

PurposeIn this study, machine learning (ML) algorithms were employed to predict the shear capacity and behavior of DCSWs.Design/methodology/approachIn this study, ML algorithms were employed to predict the shear capacity and behavior of DCSWs. Various ML techniques, including linear regression (LR), support vector machine (SVM), decision tree (DT), random forest (RF), extreme gradient boosting (XGBoost) and artificial neural network (ANN), were utilized. The ML models were trained using a dataset of 462 numerical and experimental samples. Numerical models were generated and analyzed using the finite element (FE) software Abaqus. These models underwent push-over analysis, subjecting them to pure shear conditions by applying a target displacement solely to the top of the shear walls without interaction from a frame. The input data encompassed eight survey variables: geometric values and material types. The characterization of input FE data was randomly generated within a logical range for each variable. The training and testing phases employed 90 and 10% of the data, respectively. The trained models predicted two output targets: the shear capacity of DCSWs and the likelihood of buckling. Accurate predictions in these areas contribute to the efficient lateral enhancement of structures. An ensemble method was employed to enhance capacity prediction accuracy, incorporating select algorithms.FindingsThe proposed model achieved a remarkable 98% R-score for estimating shear strength and a corresponding 98% accuracy in predicting buckling occurrences. Among all the algorithms tested, XGBoost demonstrated the best performance.Originality/valueIn this study, for the first time, ML algorithms were employed to predict the shear capacity and behavior of DCSWs.

In the modern world, condition monitoring is crucial to the predictive maintenance of machinery. Gearboxes are widely used in machineries and auto motives to achieve the variable speeds. The major problem in gearbox is catastrophic failure due to heavy loads, corrosion and erosion, results in economic loss and creates high safety risks. So, it is necessary to provide condition monitoring technique to detect and diagnose failures, to achieve cost benefits to industry. The main purpose of this study to use Machine Learning (ML) algorithms and Artificial Neural Network (ANN) which are very powerful and reliable tool for fault detection and its most important attribute is its ability to efficiently detect non-stationary, non-periodic, transient features of the vibration signal. To do the vibration study, an experimental setup was created, and various faults were induced faults of various kinds that usually occurred in the gearbox. The gear in the gear train was subjected to vibration analysis which was captured via a sensor. Signal processing was carried out using MATLAB Toolbox. To automatically identify the flaws in the helical gearbox, an artificial neural network (ANN) and several machines learning methods, including KNN, decision tree, random forest, and SMV, were trained by creating a database from the experiment conducted. The outcomes showed potential in accurately classifying the faults. The results show that ANN has the highest accuracy of 99.6% with a 6.5662 seconds computational time while SVM has the lowest accuracy of 96% among them along with the highest computational time of 21.324 seconds.

Software Bug Prediction (SBP) is an important issue in software development and maintenance processes, which concerns with the overall of software successes. This is because predicting the software faults in earlier phase improves the software quality, reliability, efficiency and reduces the software cost. However, developing robust bug prediction model is a challenging task and many techniques have been proposed in the literature. This paper presents a software bug prediction model based on machine learning (ML) algorithms. Three supervised ML algorithms have been used to predict future software faults based on historical data. These classifiers are Naïve Bayes (NB), Decision Tree (DT) and Artificial Neural Networks (ANNs). The evaluation process showed that ML algorithms can be used effectively with high accuracy rate. Furthermore, a comparison measure is applied to compare the proposed prediction model with other approaches. The collected results showed that the ML approach has a better performance.

The rapid growth of the Internet and information technologies and also the diminution of the price of hardware components like wireless sensors leads to the fast growth in Wireless Sensor Network (WSN). The WSN is a bunch/group of sensors that are located across the area, in order to monitor and determine environmental conditions such as temperature, humidity, vibrations, wind, water levels, pollution levels. WSNs are susceptible to major attacks like Denial of Service (DOS), Wormhole attack, Sinkhole attack, etc. The main threat to the WSN is because of the broadcast nature of the nodes in the network. Therefore, the security of WSNs is the essential part that must be done. Hence, to overcome these problems or threats, we are trying to detect it using AI technology. With the expanding fields of Machine Learning and Deep Learning, we can apply various algorithms in order to classify different types of attacks. Once we detect the attack properly, we can prevent it accordingly. We are using WSN-DS. It has 4 classes of attacks which are Grayhole, Blackhole, TDMA(Scheduling), and Flooding which comes under the category of DOS attacks. In this chapter, we have analysed and compared the accuracies of 5 main machine learning classification algorithms. Also, we have analysed the 1 deep learning algorithm. The ANN (Artificial Neural Network) and 5 machine learning algorithms have been trained on the dataset. Furthermore, we have used K-fold cross-validation to get even more accurate predictions. After analysis of these algorithms, we came to the point that, the Machine Learning algorithms like Random Forest, Support Vector Machines and Deep Learning algorithm, namely, Artificial Neural Network can help us for detecting intrusions in the system or network. This will help researchers in designing their own machine learning model on top of our suggested model.

In brain–computer interfaces (BCIs), it is crucial to process brain signals to improve the accuracy of the classification of motor movements. Machine learning (ML) algorithms such as artificial neural networks (ANNs), linear discriminant analysis (LDA), decision tree (D.T.), K-nearest neighbor (KNN), naive Bayes (N.B.), and support vector machine (SVM) have made significant progress in classification issues. This paper aims to present a signal processing analysis of electroencephalographic (EEG) signals among different feature extraction techniques to train selected classification algorithms to classify signals related to motor movements. The motor movements considered are related to the left hand, right hand, both fists, feet, and relaxation, making this a multiclass problem. In this study, nine ML algorithms were trained with a dataset created by the feature extraction of EEG signals.The EEG signals of 30 Physionet subjects were used to create a dataset related to movement. We used electrodes C3, C1, CZ, C2, and C4 according to the standard 10-10 placement. Then, we extracted the epochs of the EEG signals and applied tone, amplitude levels, and statistical techniques to obtain the set of features. LabVIEW™2015 version custom applications were used for reading the EEG signals; for channel selection, noise filtering, band selection, and feature extraction operations; and for creating the dataset. MATLAB 2021a was used for training, testing, and evaluating the performance metrics of the ML algorithms. In this study, the model of Medium-ANN achieved the best performance, with an AUC average of 0.9998, Cohen’s Kappa coefficient of 0.9552, a Matthews correlation coefficient of 0.9819, and a loss of 0.0147. These findings suggest the applicability of our approach to different scenarios, such as implementing robotic prostheses, where the use of superficial features is an acceptable option when resources are limited, as in embedded systems or edge computing devices.

Predictive artificial intelligence (AI) models for the assessment of factors and trends related to disease prevalence, prognosis, and the risk prediction of mortality in the early phases, seem to be effective techniques. Machine learning (ML) algorithms as a branch of AI methods have had a considerable role in controlling and management of COVID-19 and previous pandemics. The present study estimates the mortality risk among COVID-19 patients based on ML algorithms, prediction of outcomes in new cases, and also determines the top significant features related to morality in the patients. In this retrospective research, 7115 patients with confirmed COVID-19 disease were included in the study. The information was collected from 35 different hospitals across Khorasan-Razavi province, Northeast of Iran during 20 February 2020 - 21 June 2021. We employed random forests (RF), decision tree (DT), artificial neural networks (ANN), support vector machines (SVM), logistic regression (LR), and boosted trees (BT) ML algorithms. Our findings indicated that the RF model had better performance in different criteria. The RF algorithm had area under curve (AUC) of 88%, accuracy of 96%, precision of 96%, sensitivity of 99%, and specificity of 80%. Intubation, SpO2, age, time from symptoms, loss of consciousness, reception season, and diabetes were the seven ordered and significant predictors of the risk of COVID-19 patients’ death. RF model can aid in clinical decision-making and limited resource allocation. This model needs to be externally validated in larger populations, more features, and multicenter settings. Received: August 4, 2023Accepted: September 13, 2023

Internet traffic classification is a fundamental task for network services and management. There are good machine learning models to identify the class of traffic. However, finding the most discriminating features to have efficient models remains essential. In this paper, we use interpretable machine learning algorithms such as decision tree, random forest and eXtreme gradient boosting (XGBoost) to find the most discriminating features for internet traffic classification. The dataset used contains 377,526 traffics. Each traffic is described by 248 features. From these features, we propose a 12-feature model with an accuracy of up to 99.76%. We tested it on another dataset with 19626 flows and obtained 98.40% of accuracy. This shows the efficiency and stability of our model. Also, we identify a set of 14 important features for internet traffic classification, including two that are crucial: port number (server) and minimum segment size (client to server).

Diabetes is a long-term health condition that impacts millions of people worldwide, and correct and timely diagnosis is required to manage it effectively. In the present research study, we propose an improved model of diabetes prediction based on the usage of Big Data Analytics (BDA) and Machine Learning (ML) algorithms for enhancing the predictability of diabetes. Our research is based on the ideas developed in the reference paper, where the application of BDA in enabling healthcare decisionmaking was proposed. With the inclusion of the usage of advanced ML algorithms like Decision Trees, Random Forest, Logistic Regression, Naive Bayes, and Artificial Neural Networks (ANN), we enhance predictability for the diagnosis of diabetes. We employed a comprehensive healthcare dataset with various health metrics, including blood pressure, cholesterol, BMI, smoking, and physical activity. The data was heavily preprocessed, ranging from feature engineering to normalization, to get better model performance. All the models were trained and tested on accuracy, precision, recall, and ROC-AUC. Among the models, Random Forest and ANN were better with higher accuracy, detecting diabetic patients at risk effectively. Our model not only increases prediction accuracy but also facilitates scalability with Big Data technology and practices. The ANN model, in particular, proved effective in finding complex patterns within the data, yielding a reliable solution towards real-time diabetes prediction. This effort illustrates the potential of integrating BDA and ML in healthcare for data-driven decision-making and supporting early diagnosis and management of diabetes. The model is deployed as an interactive user-friendly web application using Streamlet, where users can input health indicators and receive predictions from different models. Through its interactive interface, it facilitates healthcare professionals and patients by offering themreal-time information, thereby ultimately improving diabetes management and patient care.

This dissertation contributes with novel predictive modelling approaches to data-driven computational psychiatry and offers alternative analyses frameworks to the standard statistical analyses in psychiatric research. In particular, this document advances research in medical data mining, especially psychiatry, via two phases. In the first phase, this document promotes research by proposing synergistic machine learning and statistical approaches for detecting patterns and developing predictive models in clinical psychiatry data to classify diseases, predict treatment outcomes or improve treatment selections. In particular, these data-driven approaches are built upon several machine learning techniques whose predictive models have been pre-processed, trained, optimised, post-processed and tested in novel computationally intensive frameworks. In the second phase, this document advances research in medical data mining by proposing several novel extensions in the area of data classification by offering a novel decision tree algorithm, which we call PIDT, based on parameterised impurities and statistical pruning approaches toward building more accurate decision trees classifiers and developing new ensemblebased classification methods. In particular, the experimental results show that by building predictive models with the novel PIDT algorithm, these models primarily led to better performance regarding accuracy and tree size than those built with traditional decision trees. The contributions of the proposed dissertation can be summarised as follow. Firstly, several statistical and machine learning algorithms, plus techniques to improve these algorithms, are explored. Secondly, prediction modelling and pattern detection approaches for the first-episode psychosis associated with cannabis use are developed. Thirdly, a new computationally intensive machine learning framework for understanding the link between cannabis use and first-episode psychosis was introduced. Then, complementary and equally sophisticated prediction models for the first-episode psychosis associated with cannabis use were developed using artificial neural networks and deep learning within the proposed novel computationally intensive framework. Lastly, an efficient novel decision tree algorithm (PIDT) based on novel parameterised impurities and statistical pruning approaches is proposed and tested with several medical datasets. These contributions can be used to guide future theory, experiment, and treatment development in medical data mining, especially psychiatry.

Surgical site infection (SSI) following a neurosurgical operation is a complication that impacts morbidity, mortality, and economics. Currently, machine learning (ML) algorithms are used for outcome prediction in various neurosurgical aspects. The implementation of ML algorithms to learn from medical data may help in obtaining prognostic information on diseases, especially SSIs. The purpose of this study was to compare the performance of various ML models for predicting surgical infection after neurosurgical operations. A retrospective cohort study was conducted on patients who had undergone neurosurgical operations at tertiary care hospitals between 2010 and 2017. Supervised ML algorithms, which included decision tree, naive Bayes with Laplace correction, k-nearest neighbors, and artificial neural networks, were trained and tested as binary classifiers (infection or no infection). To evaluate the ML models from the testing data set, their sensitivity, specificity, positive predictive value (PPV), and negative predictive value (NPV), as well as their accuracy, receiver operating characteristic curve, and area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC) were analyzed. Data were available for 1471 patients in the study period. The SSI rate was 4.6%, and the type of SSI was superficial, deep, and organ/space in 1.2%, 0.8%, and 2.6% of cases, respectively. Using the backward stepwise method, the authors determined that the significant predictors of SSI in the multivariable Cox regression analysis were postoperative CSF leakage/subgaleal collection (HR 4.24, p < 0.001) and postoperative fever (HR 1.67, p = 0.04). Compared with other ML algorithms, the naive Bayes had the highest performance with sensitivity at 63%, specificity at 87%, PPV at 29%, NPV at 96%, and AUC at 76%. The naive Bayes algorithm is highlighted as an accurate ML method for predicting SSI after neurosurgical operations because of its reasonable accuracy. Thus, it can be used to effectively predict SSI in individual neurosurgical patients. Therefore, close monitoring and allocation of treatment strategies can be informed by ML predictions in general practice.