Modified aquila optimizer for forecasting oil production

In this paper, we compare and analyze the prediction performance of existing ANFIS (Adaptive Neuro Fuzzy Inference System) models. The ANFIS model is a fusion of neural networks with learning ability, adaptability, and computational ability, and a fuzzy system with human-like thinking ability and reasoning ability. In this paper, we analyze the prediction performance of ANFIS models using different input space partitioning methods. ANFIS 1 uses SC (Subtractive Clustering), a clustering method based on the density of data, to calculate the center of the cluster by calculating potential values inversely proportional to the distances of the different inputs. ANFIS 2 uses Fuzzy C-Means (FCM) clustering, which is a clustering method based on degree of belonging to data, and classifies each data belonging to each cluster according to degree of affiliation. ANFIS 3 is a method of using Context based Fuzzy C-Means (CFCM) clustering, which is a clustering method considering characteristics of input and output space based on FCM clustering. It creates clusters for each context generated according to characteristics of output space, to classify the data. To evaluate these ANFIS models, we use short term electricity price forecasting data and Boston housing data. The prediction performance is based on the Root Mean Squared Error (RMSE) method. Experimental results show that the prediction performance of the ANFIS model is different depending on the characteristics of each data. Furthermore, we confirmed that the prediction performance of ANFIS model using CFCM clustering method is constant.

In this paper, a hybrid meta-heuristic artificial intelligence (AI) method, named “ANFIS–PSOGA,” is developed for modeling the discharge coefficient of circular side orifices for the first time. For this purpose, the adaptive neuro fuzzy inference system (ANFIS) network is optimized by means of two robust optimization algorithms: the genetic algorithm (GA) and the particle swarm optimization (PSO) algorithm. Furthermore, the Monte Carlo simulations are utilized to enhance the performance of the AI hybrid model. Besides, the k-fold cross-validation method is employed in order to verify the numerical results. Initially, the performance of three fuzzy inference system (FIS) generations of the ANFIS model including grid partitioning, subtractive clustering and fuzzy C-means clustering are evaluated. After that, using the parameters affecting the discharge coefficient, eleven ANFIS models are defined and then the best ANFIS model and the most influencing input parameters are identified through the conduction of a sensitivity analysis. For the superior ANFIS model, mean absolute percentage error, root-mean-square error and the correlation coefficient (R) are obtained 0.021, 0.020 and 0.871, respectively. Also, the Froude number (Fr) is detected as the most effective input parameter. Moreover, the discharge coefficient of the circular side orifices and the flow field within main channels along the side orifices are simulated through the adoption of a computational fluid dynamics (CFD) model. Additionally, the flow field at three different cross sections (beginning, middle and end of orifice) along the side weir is evaluated. For instance, by advancing the flow toward the side orifice, the Froude number is reduced. Besides, at each cross section, the maximum shear stress is estimated to occur in the vicinity of the crest of the circular side orifice. According to the CFD results, the maximum lateral velocity is estimated near the circular side orifice. In addition, the results yielded by the ANFIS, ANFIS–PSO, ANFIS–PSOGA and CFD models are compared and an uncertainty analysis is carried out for the models. Based on the comparison, ANFIS–PSOGA has the best performance in simulating the discharge coefficient. Ultimately, a simple and practical computer code for the best model (ANFIS–PSOGA) is proposed which can be easily used by scholars and engineers in practical usages.

This paper presents the possibility of using Adaptive Neuro Fuzzy Inference System for Power Transformer Paper Condition Assessment. The dielectric characteristics, dissolved gasses, and furan of 108 running transformers is collected. The 2-furaldehyde (2FAL) data is transformed to Degree of Polymerization (DP), and then statistically analysed to get independent variables as the predictor for the transformer paper condition assessment. CO and CO2 are well known as one of the product of cellulose degradation, while interfacial tension, acidity, and color from the oil are statistically correlated with furan. ANFIS (Adaptive Neuro-Fuzzy Inference System) and Multiple Regression (MR) model is built based on the previous statistical analysis, and then the result is evaluated and compared, resulting in better accuracy of ANFIS model. Three different evaluation criteria MAE (Mean Absolute Error), MAPE (Mean Absolute Percentage Error), and RMSE (Root Mean Square Error) calculated from ANFIS prediction are lower than those from MR model, with the MAPE of ANFIS model is 15.38%.

The applicability of artificial neural networks (ANNs) and the adaptive neuro-fuzzy inference system (ANFIS) for determination of mean velocity and discharge of natural streams is investigated. The 2,184 field data obtained from four different sites on the Sarimsakli and Sosun streams in central Turkey were used in the study. ANNs and ANFIS models use the inputs, water surface velocity and water surface slope, to estimate the mean velocity and discharges of natural streams. The accuracies of both models were compared with the multiple-linear regression (MLR) model. The comparison results showed that the ANFIS model performed better than the ANNs and regression models for estimating mean velocity and discharge. The ANN model also showed better accuracy than the MLR model. The root mean square errors (RMSE) and mean absolute relative errors (MARE) of the MLR model were reduced by 88 and 91 % using the ANFIS model in estimating discharges, respectively. It is found that the optimal ANFIS model with RMSE of 0,063, MARE of 3,47 and determination coefficient (R2) of 0,996 in the test period is superior in estimation of discharge than the MLR model with RMSE of 0,532, MARE of 38,9 and R2 of 0,776, respectively. The study reveals that the ANFIS technique can be successfully used for estimating the mean velocity and discharge of natural streams by using only the inputs of water surface velocity and water surface slope.

As financial markets worldwide continue to evolve, the importance of predictive models for investors and analysts is growing. This paper presents a comparative analysis of metaheuristic-based Adaptive Neuro-Fuzzy Inference System (ANFIS) and Artificial Neural Network (ANN) models for predicting stock prices in the Borsa Istanbul 100 (BIST 100) index. Using a comprehensive dataset of weekly data (2010–2023), researchers tested different model configurations, and the ANFIS model was improved with Particle Swarm Optimization (PSO) and Ant Colony Optimization (ACO). Model performance was evaluated using performance criteria such as Mean Squared Error (MSE), Mean Absolute Error (MAE), and R-squared (R2). The results showed that, in particular, the ANFIS-PSO and ANN-based approaches exhibited higher accuracy compared to traditional regression methods. The study also analyzed the impact of various macroeconomic and financial indicators, including the gold/TL exchange rate, VIX index, and government bond interest rates, on the BIST 100. The findings reveal that artificial intelligence-based modeling significantly improves stock price forecasts thanks to its adaptability to dynamic market conditions. In this respect, the study makes theoretical contributions and highlights practical implications for investment strategies and risk management. Future research can further enrich the financial modeling literature by testing the validity of similar approaches in other emerging or developed markets, as well as by incorporating additional macroeconomic factors and different meta-heuristic algorithms into the model.

This study used two methodologies to model microwave drying kinetics of tomato slices: artificial neural networks (ANN) and the adaptive neuro-fuzzy inference system (ANFIS).The tomatoes were pre-treated with water blanching (WBP), ascorbic acid (AAP), and sodium metabisulphite (SBP).The tomatoes were then dried in the microwave at 90, 180, and 360 W after being sliced into 4-, 6-, and 8-mm thicknesses.After fitting ANN and ANFIS models to the experimental drying data, the optimal model topology was identified.The predictive accuracy of these models was assessed through these metrics: the coefficient of determination (R 2 ), mean squared error (MSE), root mean squared error (RMSE), and mean absolute error (MAE), by contrasting the projected results with experimental data.The results showed a range of 0.92 to 3.75 h for drying time, 0.28 to 2.86 x 10 -8 m 2 /s for Deff, and 0.0027 to 0.0063 kWh/kg for SEC.The results indicated a highperformance capacity of ANFIS compared to ANN, with a higher R 2 of 1.0000 and a lower MSE of 0.9999 to 1.0000, an RMSE of 1.45x10 -11 to 0.00309, and a MAE of 1.15x10 -11 to 0.00296.Consequently, the ANFIS model demonstrated superior predictive capabilities compared to the ANN model, achieving a strong fit with the observed data.

Electricity is the most substantial energy form that significantly affects the development of modern life, work efficiency, quality of life, production, and competitiveness of the society in the ever-growing global world. In this respect, forecasting accurate electricity energy consumption (EEC) is fairly essential for any country?s energy consumption planning and management regarding its growth. In this study, four time-series methods; long short-term memory (LSTM) neural network, adaptive neuro-fuzzy inference system (ANFIS) with subtractive clustering (SC), ANFIS with fuzzy cmeans (FCM), and ANFIS with grid partition (GP) were implemented for the short-term one-day ahead EEC prediction. Root mean square error (RMSE), correlation coefficient (R), mean absolute error (MAE) and mean absolute percentage error (MAPE) were considered as statistical accuracy criteria. Those forecasted results by the LSTM, ANFIS-FCM, ANFIS-SC and ANFIS-GP models were evaluated by comparing with the actual data using statistical accuracy metrics. According to the testing process, the best MAPE values were obtained to be 4.47%, 3.21%, 2.34%, and 1.91% for the ANFIS-GP, ANFIS-SC, ANFIS-FCM, and LSTM, respectively. Furthermore, the best RMSE values were found as 25.94 GWh, 41.17 GWh, 29.50 GWh, and 80.14 GWh for the LSTM, ANFIS-SC, ANFIS-FCM, and ANFIS-GP models, respectively. As a consequence, the LSTM model generally outperformed all ANFIS models. The results revealed that forecasting of short-term daily EEC time series using the LSTM approach can provide high accuracy results.

A Comparative Study on Prediction of Monthly Streamflow Using Hybrid ANFIS-PSO Approaches

The present article aims to forecast streamflow by using artificial neural networks (ANNs), adaptive neuro-fuzzy inference system (ANFIS), and autoregressive moving average (ARMA). For this purpose, the daily streamflow time series of two hydrometry stations of Hajighoshan and Tamar on Gorgan River are used for two periods of 1983–2007 and 1974–2007, respectively. Root mean square error (RMSE) and correlation coefficient (R) statistics are employed to evaluate the performance of the ANNs, ANFIS, and ARMA models for forecasting streamflow (1 day ahead). Comparison of the results reveals that the ANFIS model outperforms the ARMA model. Based on the results of validation stage, for the forecasting 1 day ahead streamflow, ANN with RMSE = 0.028 m3/s and R = 0.59 for the Hajighoshan station and RMSE = 0.013 m3/s and R = 0.44 for the Tamar station were found to be superior to the ANFIS with RMSE = 1.98 m3/s and R = 0.42 for the Hajighoshan station and RMSE = 2.18 m3/s and R = 0.22 for the Tamar station. In addition, for 2 day and 3 day ahead streamflow forecasts, the ANN models show superiority in the accuracy of forecasting streamflow compared with the ANFIS models.

In complex industrial processes (CIPs), due to technical and economic limitations, key performance indicators (KPIs), especially the chemical content-related KPIs, are often difficult to measure in real time, which hinders the propagation of advanced process control technologies. This paper presents a soft sensor-based online KPI inference scheme by a state transition algorithm (STA)-optimized adaptive pre-sparse neuro-fuzzy inference system model, called STA-APSNFIS. It introduces a pre-sparse neural network to the traditional adaptive neuro-fuzzy inference system (ANFIS) model to establish an adaptive pre-sparse neuro-fuzzy inference system (APSNFIS) model to alleviate the adverse effects of data redundancy and noise interference in the detectable process monitoring data, which can effectively reduce the complexity of neuro-fuzzy inference system (NFIS) and speed up its convergence. Successively, to avoid being trapped at a local optimum, the STA-based optimization algorithm is adopted to replace the traditional gradient-based optimization approach to achieve an optimal APSNFIS model. Extensive validation and comparative experiments on nonlinear numeric simulation systems, benchmark Tenessee Eastman (TE) process and a real industrial bauxite flotation process demonstrated that the proposed STA-APSNFIS performed favorably against traditional ANFIS model as well as its variants, e.g., PSO-ANFIS, GA-ANFIS, and some other soft sensor-based KPI inference models.

Dengue hemorrhagic fever (DHF) is one of the most widespread and deadly diseases in several parts of Indonesia. An accurate forecast-based model is required to reduce the incidence rate of this disease. Time-series methods such as autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) models are used in epidemiology as statistical tools to study and forecast DHF and other infectious diseases. The present study attempted to forecast the monthly confirmed DHF cases via a time-series approach. The ARIMA, seasonal ARIMA (SARIMA), and long short-term memory (LSTM) models were compared to select the most accurate forecasting method for the deadly disease. The data were obtained from the Surabaya Health Office covering January 2014 to December 2016. The data were partitioned into the training and testing sets. The best forecasting model was selected based on the lowest values of accuracy metrics such as the root mean square error (RMSE), mean absolute error (MAE), and mean absolute percentage error (MAPE). The findings demonstrated that the SARIMA (2,1,1) (1,0,0) model was able to forecast the DHF outbreaks in Surabaya City compared to the ARIMA (2,1,1) and LSTM models. We further forecasted the DHF cases for 12 month horizons starting from January 2017 to December 2017 using the SARIMA (2,1,1) (1,0,0), ARIMA (2,1,1), and LSTM models. The results revealed that the SARIMA (2,1,1) (1,0,0) model outperformed the ARIMA (2,1,1) and LSTM models based on the goodness-of-fit measure. The results showed significant seasonal outbreaks of DHF, particularly from March to September. The highest cases observed in May suggested a significant seasonal correlation between DHF and air temperature. This research is the first attempt to analyze the time-series model for DHF cases in Surabaya City and forecast future outbreaks. The findings could help policymakers and public health specialists develop efficient public health strategies to detect and control the disease, especially in the early phases of outbreaks.

The energy and draft requirements of a disk plow have been recognized as essential factors when attempting to correctly match it with tractor power. This study examines the possible of using an adaptive neuro-fuzzy inference system (ANFIS) approach and its performance compared to a multiple linear regression (MLR) model to determine the energy and draft requirements of a disk plow. A total of 133 data patterns were obtained by conducting experiments in the field and from the literature. Of these 133 data points, 121 were arbitrarily selected and used for training, and the remaining 12 were used for testing the models. The input variables were plowing depth, plowing speed, soil texture index, initial soil moisture content, initial soil bulk density, disk diameter, disk angle, and disk tilt angle, and output variable was draft of the disk plow. Four membership functions were used with ANFIS: a triangular membership function, generalized bell-shaped membership function, trapezoidal membership function, and Gaussian curve membership function. An evaluation of the outcomes of the ANFIS and MLR modeling shows that the triangular membership function performed better than the other functions. When the ANFIS model draft predictions were compared to the measured values, the average relative error was –1.97%. A comparison of the ANFIS model with other approaches showed that the energy and draft requirements of the disk plow could be estimated with satisfactory accuracy. Keywords: ANFIS, MLR, disk plow, draft, tillage DOI: 10.25165/j.ijabe.20201302.4077 Citation: Al-Dosary N M N, Al-Hamed S A, Aboukarima A M. Application of adaptive neuro-fuzzy inference system to predict draft and energy requirements of a disk plow. Int J Agric & Biol Eng, 2020; 13(2): 198–207.

This study compares the performance of standalone adaptive neuro-fuzzy inference system (ANFIS) and its hybrid with particle swarm optimisation (PSO) in predicting the energy consumption from climatic factors for a multi-campus institution in South Africa. Monthly weather condition datasets (average wind speed, average maximum temperature, average minimum temperature, average dew point and average relative humidity) for 36 months were mapped with the corresponding monthly energy consumption for each campus as the model inputs and output respectively. The ANFIS and ANFIS-PSO models were trained and tested with 70% and 30% of the dataset respectively. The root mean square error (RMSE), mean absolute deviation (MAD), mean absolute percentage error (MAPE) and the computational time were used to evaluate the model for the four campuses. The ANFIS standalone model developed for campus C outperforms other standalone models for campus A, B and D with the following performance indices: RMSE = 1.27, MAD = 1.01, MAPE = 13.34, computational time = 14.61 secs. On the contrary, the ANFIS-PSO model developed for campus D outperforms both the standalone and the hybrid models for campus A, B and C with the following values of performance indices except for computational time: RMSE = 0.147, MAD = 0.125, MAPE = 2.89, computational time = 95.60 secs. This study concludes that tuning ANFIS parameters with PSO offers a better prediction accuracy, which is reliable for strategic energy planning, though at a higher computational time.

Drought forecasting plays an important role in the planning and management of water resources systems. In this paper, a hybrid wavelet and adaptive neuro-fuzzy inference system (WANFIS) is proposed for drought forecasting. The WANFIS model was developed by combining two methods, namely a discrete wavelet transform and adaptive neuro-fuzzy inference system (ANFIS) model. To assess the effectiveness of this model, the standardised precipitation index (SPI) was applied for meteorological drought analysis at five rainfalls gauging stations located around the Klang River basin, Malaysia. The SPI drought forecasting capability performance of the WANFIS model is compared with the autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) and ANFIS models using various statistical measures. Comparison of the results reveals that the WANFIS model performs better than the traditional ANFIS and ARIMA models.

In this work, cationic (Mg2+, Ca2+, Sr2+, and Ba2+) substitution in X and Y faujasite zeolite structures and their effects on capacity of zeolites for methane adsorption were studied by applying multiple linear regression and expert adaptive neuro-fuzzy inference system (ANFIS) . Temperature, pressure, and molecular weight of cations were used as the input parameters. The results obtained from application of the proposed ANFIS model showed that at high pressures, the zeolite with smaller cation in their structure have higher methane adsorption capacity. The root-mean-square error, square correlation coefficient (R2), mean absolute error, and percentage of mean absolute relative error for X and Y faujasite zeolites were evaluated, which indicated that ANFIS model can accurately predict the adsorption of methane gas on X and Y zeolites in the presence of the substituted cations.