Predictive Analysis of Bitcoin Price Trends Usingsupervised Machine Learning Algorithms

To predict the potential geographic distribution of Oncomelania hupensis in Yunnan Province using random forest (RF) and maximum entropy (MaxEnt) models, so as to provide insights into O. hupensis surveillance and control in Yunnan Province. The O. hupensis snail survey data in Yunnan Province from 2015 to 2016 were collected and converted into O. hupensis snail distribution site data. Data of 22 environmental variables in Yunnan Province were collected, including twelve climate variables (annual potential evapotranspiration, annual mean ground surface temperature, annual precipitation, annual mean air pressure, annual mean relative humidity, annual sunshine duration, annual mean air temperature, annual mean wind speed, ≥ 0 ℃ annual accumulated temperature, ≥ 10 ℃ annual accumulated temperature, aridity and index of moisture), eight geographical variables (normalized difference vegetation index, landform type, land use type, altitude, soil type, soil textureclay content, soil texture-sand content and soil texture-silt content) and two population and economic variables (gross domestic product and population). Variables were screened with Pearson correlation test and variance inflation factor (VIF) test. The RF and MaxEnt models and the ensemble model were created using the biomod2 package of the software R 4.2.1, and the potential distribution of O. hupensis snails after 2016 was predicted in Yunnan Province. The predictive effects of models were evaluated through cross-validation and independent tests, and the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC), true skill statistics (TSS) and Kappa statistics were used for model evaluation. In addition, the importance of environmental variables was analyzed, the contribution of environmental variables output by the models with AUC values of > 0.950 and TSS values of > 0.850 were selected for normalization processing, and the importance percentage of environmental variables was obtained to analyze the importance of environmental variables. Data of 148 O. hupensis snail distribution sites and 15 environmental variables were included in training sets of RF and MaxEnt models, and both RF and MaxEnt models had high predictive performance, with both mean AUC values of > 0.900 and all mean TSS values and Kappa values of > 0.800, and significant differences in the AUC (t = 19.862, P < 0.05), TSS (t = 10.140, P < 0.05) and Kappa values (t = 10.237, P < 0.05) between two models. The AUC, TSS and Kappa values of the ensemble model were 0.996, 0.954 and 0.920, respectively. Independent data verification showed that the AUC, TSS and Kappa values of the RF model and the ensemble model were all 1, which still showed high performance in unknown data modeling, and the MaxEnt model showed poor performance, with TSS and Kappa values of 0 for 24%(24/100) of the modeling results. The modeling results of 79 RF models, 38 MaxEnt models and their ensemble models with AUC values of > 0.950 and TSS values of > 0.850 were included in the evaluation of importance of environmental variables. The importance of annual sunshine duration (SSD) was 32.989%, 37.847% and 46.315% in the RF model, the MaxEnt model and their ensemble model, while the importance of annual mean relative humidity (RHU) was 30.947%, 15.921% and 28.121%, respectively. Important environment variables were concentrated in modeling results of the RF model, dispersed in modeling results of the MaxEnt model, and most concentrated in modeling results of the ensemble model. The potential distribution of O. hupensis snails after 2016 was predicted to be relatively concentrated in Yunnan Province by the RF model and relatively large by the MaxEnt model, and the distribution of O. hupensis snails predicted by the ensemble model was mostly the joint distribution of O. hupensis snails predicted by RF and MaxEnt models. Both RF and MaxEnt models are effective to predict the potential distribution of O. hupensis snails in Yunnan Province, which facilitates targeted O. hupensis snail control.

Background and aimsThe birth weight of a newborn is a crucial factor that affects their overall health and future well-being. Low birth weight (LBW) is a widespread global issue, which the World Health Organization defines as weighing less than 2,500 g. LBW can have severe negative consequences on an individual’s health, including neonatal mortality and various health concerns throughout their life. To address this problem, this study has been conducted using BDHS 2017–2018 data to uncover important aspects of LBW using a variety of machine learning (ML) approaches and to determine the best feature selection technique and best predictive ML model.MethodsTo pick out the key features, the Boruta algorithm and wrapper method were used. Logistic Regression (LR) used as traditional method and several machine learning classifiers were then used, including, DT (Decision Tree), SVM (Support Vector Machine), NB (Naïve Bayes), RF (Random Forest), XGBoost (eXtreme Gradient Boosting), and AdaBoost (Adaptive Boosting), to determine the best model for predicting LBW. The model’s performance was evaluated based on the specificity, sensitivity, accuracy, F1 score and AUC value.ResultsResult shows, Boruta algorithm identifies eleven significant features including respondent’s age, highest education level, educational attainment, wealth index, age at first birth, weight, height, BMI, age at first sexual intercourse, birth order number, and whether the child is a twin. Incorporating Boruta algorithm’s significant features, the performance of traditional LR and ML methods including DT, SVM, NB, RF, XGBoost, and AB were evaluated where LR, had a specificity, sensitivity, accuracy and F1 score of 0.85, 0.5, 85.15% and 0.915. While the ML methods DT, SVM, NB, RF, XGBoost, and AB model’s respective accuracy values were 85.35%, 85.15%, 84.54%, 81.18%, and 84.41%. Based on the specificity, sensitivity, accuracy, F1 score and AUC, RF (specificity = 0.99, sensitivity = 0.58, accuracy = 85.86%, F1 score = 0.9243, AUC = 0.549) outperformed the other methods. Both the classical (LR) and machine learning (ML) models’ performance has improved dramatically when important characteristics are extracted using the wrapper method. The LR method identified five significant features with a specificity, sensitivity, accuracy and F1 score of 0.87, 0.33, 87.12% and 0.9309. The region, whether the infant is a twin, and cesarean delivery were the three key features discovered by the DT and RF models, which were implemented using the wrapper technique. All three models had the identical F1 score of 0.9318. However, “child is twin” was recognized as a significant feature by the SVM, NB, and AB models, with an F1 score of 0.9315. Ultimately, with an F1 score of 0.9315, the XGBoost model recognized “child is twin” and “age at first sex” as relevant features. Random Forest again beat the other approaches in this instance.ConclusionsThe study reveals Wrapper method as the optimal feature selection technique. The ML method outperforms traditional methods, with Random Forest (RF) being the most effective predictive model for Low-Birth-Weight prediction. The study suggests that policymakers in Bangladesh can mitigate low birth weight newborns by considering identified risk factors.

This paper applies an organized flow of feature engineering and machine learning to detect distributed denial-of-service (DDoS) attacks. Feature engineering has a focus to obtain the datasets of different dimensions with significant features, using feature selection methods of backward elimination, chi2, and information gain scores. Different supervised machine learning models are applied on the feature-engineered datasets to demonstrate the adaptability of datasets for machine learning under optimal tuning of parameters within given sets of values. The results show that substantial feature reduction is possible to make DDoS detection faster and optimized with minimal performance hit. The paper proposes a strategic-level framework which incorporates the necessary elements of feature engineering and machine learning with a defined flow of experimentation. The models are also validated with cross-validation and evaluated for area-under-curve analyses. It provides comprehensive solutions which can be trusted to avoid the overfitting and collinearity problems of data while detecting DDoS attacks. In the case study of DDoS datasets, K-nearest neighbors algorithm overall exhibits the best performance followed by support vector machine, whereas low-dimensional datasets of discrete feature types perform better under the Random Forest model as compared to high dimensions with numerical features. The accuracy scores of dataset with the lowest number of features remain competitive with other datasets under all machine learning models, leading to a substantially reduced processing overhead. The experiments show that approximately 68% reduction in the feature space is possible with an impact of only about 0.03% on accuracy.

Comparative study of different machine learning models in landslide susceptibility assessment: A case study of Conghua District, Guangzhou, China

Child mortality is a big problem around the world, especially in low- and middle-income nations where there are big differences in health care and social conditions. This investigation seeks to create a predictive model for child mortality and pinpoint the key factors that significantly contribute to it, employing machine learning (ML) methodologies. The dataset includes various features such as parental age, maternal education, birth weight, wealth index, and access to healthcare services. Thirteen machine learning classifiers were used, categorized into four model groups: Traditional Models (Logistic Regression, K-Nearest Neighbors, Support Vector Machine, Naive Bayes), Tree-Based Models (Decision Tree, Random Forest, Extra Trees), Boosting Models (AdaBoost, Gradient Boosting, XGBoost), and Ensemble Learning Models (Soft Voting, Hard Voting, Stacking). The efficacy of each model was assessed using classification metrics, including Accuracy, Precision, Recall, and F1-Score within a 10-fold cross-validation framework to guarantee robustness. Results indicate that ensemble models, particularly AdaBoost, achieved the highest predictive accuracy, with perfect scores across all metrics (1.00). XGBoost and Stacking also demonstrated strong and consistent performance. The findings indicate that ensemble learning methods are effective in predicting child mortality and can assist policymakers and healthcare planners in identifying high-risk populations and implementing targeted interventions to reduce child mortality.

BackgroundLumbar drainage is widely used in the clinic; however, forecasting lumbar drainage-related meningitis (LDRM) is limited. We aimed to establish prediction models using supervised machine learning (ML) algorithms.MethodsWe utilized a cohort of 273 eligible lumbar drainage cases. Data were preprocessed and split into training and testing sets. Optimal hyper-parameters were archived by 10-fold cross-validation and grid search. The support vector machine (SVM), random forest (RF), and artificial neural network (ANN) were adopted for model training. The area under the operating characteristic curve (AUROC) and precision-recall curve (AUPRC), true positive ratio (TPR), true negative ratio (TNR), specificity, sensitivity, accuracy, and kappa coefficient were used for model evaluation. All trained models were internally validated. The importance of features was also analyzed.ResultsIn the training set, all the models had AUROC exceeding 0.8. SVM and the RF models had an AUPRC of more than 0.6, but the ANN model had an unexpectedly low AUPRC (0.380). The RF and ANN models revealed similar TPR, whereas the ANN model had a higher TNR and demonstrated better specificity, sensitivity, accuracy, and kappa efficiency. In the testing set, most performance indicators of established models decreased. However, the RF and AVM models maintained adequate AUROC (0.828 vs. 0.719) and AUPRC (0.413 vs. 0.520), and the RF model also had better TPR, specificity, sensitivity, accuracy, and kappa efficiency. Site leakage showed the most considerable mean decrease in accuracy.ConclusionsThe RF and SVM models could predict LDRM, in which the RF model owned the best performance, and site leakage was the most meaningful predictor.

Cardiovascular disease remains the most significant contributor to global mortality, highlighting the importance of early and precise risk assessment within preventive healthcare frameworks. Alongside the rapid growth of clinical data availability, machine learning approaches have increasingly been adopted to assist medical decision-making, particularly for interpreting complex and high-dimensional health information. This research investigates the predictive capability of six supervised machine learning models in determining the likelihood of cardiovascular disease incidence: Logistic Regression, Support Vector Machine, k-Nearest Neighbors, Decision Tree, Random Forest, and Gradient Boosting. The Cleveland Heart Disease dataset from the UCI Machine Learning Repository served as the study's foundation. It includes 303 patient samples with a total of 76 recorded attributes. From this dataset, 14 clinically significant variables frequently reported in previous studies were selected for analysis. Considering the relatively small dataset size and the possibility of redundant or low-impact features, a feature selection approach was implemented to improve model robustness, minimize overfitting, and enhance interpretability. The data preparation process involved cleaning, normalization, feature selection, and division into datasets for testing and training. Metrics like accuracy, precision, recall, and F1-score were used to evaluate the model. The results of the experiment show that Random Forest and Logistic Regression models produced the highest predictive performance, followed by k-Nearest Neighbours and Support Vector Machine. These results indicate that supervised machine learning techniques, when supported by appropriate feature selection methods, are effective as decision-support tools for the early detection of cardiovascular disease.

Data-driven rapid detection of Helicobacter pylori infection through machine learning with limited laboratory parameters in Chinese primary clinics

The paper examines the factors that influence Bitcoin price direction from the perspective of machine learning (ML) models. The observed factors cover Bitcoin market data, technical indicators, blockchain variables, sentiment analysis, and other macro-financial variables. Logistic Regression (LR), Random Forest (RF), and Support Vector Machine (SVM) classifiers are employed. Three train-test ratios are considered. Grid search and blocking time series cross-validation are used to adjust the hyperparameters of the proposed ML algorithms resulting in the three most accurate models for each train-test ratio. Variables that affect the next-day price direction are ranked using LR and RF best models. For each method and train-test ratio, the smallest subsets of independent variables with the highest test set accuracy were chosen to reduce dimensionality. Models show that technical indicators influence daily Bitcoin price direction the most, followed by blockchain and Bitcoin market variables. Contrarily, models disagree on the importance of Tweets and macro-financial variables. Finally, SVM performed better on the test set when the LR optimal sets of independent variables were considered, indicating that the analysis of individual factors' influence on the Bitcoin price is not important only for corresponding model. Combining only influential independent variables and 90:10 train-test ratio yielded the greatest accuracy of 58.18 % achieved by RF model.

Since there are many possible influencing factors of visibility, lightweight data requirements in practical applications of machine learning in visibility prediction can reduce the corresponding data observation cost and collection difficulty. By using the long-term measured data in Qingdao, this research comprehensively compares the performance of five common machine learning methods under different training parameter schemes, including XGBoost, LightGBM, Random Forest (RF), Support Vector Machine (SVM) and Multiple Linear Regression (MLR). The lightweight visibility prediction schemes based on pollutant parameter optimization are established. The seasonal training data of five machine learning models is preprocessed, and then performance evaluations of predictions are carried out. The analysis results show that in terms of models, ensemble learning models, including XGBoost, LightGBM, and RF, have significantly better seasonal visibility prediction effects than SVM and MLR models; XGBoost and LightGBM also have slightly better prediction effects than RF models. In terms of pollutant parameters, solid pollutants have a greater impact on visibility prediction than gaseous pollutants; PM2.5 is more influential than PM10 in visibility prediction. The visibility prediction scheme with six parameters using meteorological parameters and PM2.5 based on XGBoost or LightGBM model is preferably established in this research. This scheme can achieve the same prediction performance as the 11 parameter prediction scheme. The Correlation Coefficient (CC) of the results is around 0.85. The results of this study can not only be used to provide a machine learning scheme reference for practical visibility prediction applications, but also help to deepen the understanding of the factors affecting visibility.

Machine learning approach to predict susceptible growth regions of Moringa peregrina (Forssk)

This paper compares the performance of five different supervised machine learning (SL) algorithms to identify the practical model for tracking copper using solution cathode glow discharge optical emission spectroscopy (SCGD-OES). A total of 4500 SCGD-OES spectra were collected, corresponding to 15 different copper concentrations ranging from 10.3 mg l−1 to 59.6 mg l−1, for training and validating five models: K-nearest neighbors (KNN), random forest (RF), artificial neural network (ANN), convolutional neural network (CNN), and recurrent neural network (RNN). Then, performance of these models were evaluated based on accuracy, precision of predictions and training time. In terms of accuracy, the relative error (RE) was 3% for the CNN model and 4% for the ANN model. Conversely, the RE increased from 21% and 43% for the RF and RNN models to 103% for the KNN model due to the unpredictability of Cu concentration outside the training range. Regarding precision, the relative standard deviation (RSD) values were similar across all models, with the lowest RSD being 3% for the CNN model and the highest being 5% for the RF model. The training time indicated that the KNN and RF models provided the best learning speed, while the CNN model had the slowest learning speed, taking 5 times longer than the ANN model. The accuracy of the ANN and CNN models is in agreement with inductively coupled plasma-optical emission spectroscopy (ICP-OES), with a average difference not exceeding 6% when tracking six different Cu concentrations, both inside and outside the training range. Additionally, this research investigated the weight distribution in the hidden layers of the ANN, CNN, and RNN models and feature importances in the RF model to enhance understanding of the internal structure of models and assist analysts in selecting the practical model for tracking heavy metals based on SCGD-OES.

Prediction of the stock price has always been a challenging task due to irregular patterns of the market. Uncertainty has made researchers think of some new and robust predictive methods. Many studies are available in the literature, with many models to predict the stock price accurately. Statistical, machine learning, deep learning, and other related approaches can create a predictive model. ARIMA model is the most commonly used statistical model for time series prediction. But ensemble learning techniques have not been explored much to predict future stock price. So, the present study stresses comparing statistical methods with ensemble learning methods. This paper compares the ARIMA, Random Forest, and Extreme Gradient Boosting models based on root mean squared error (RMSE) and mean absolute percentage error (MAPE). The subject chosen is Google’s stocks, and the data used is from NASDAQ stock exchange. The analysis results show that the ARIMA model performed fairly well for short-term predictions but relatively high MAPE value. The extreme gradient boosting model gave the best performance with the lowest RMSE and MAPE value. Hence, it is evident that after proper hyperparameter tuning, ensemble learning techniques can be used to create robust stock price-prediction models.

Urban traffic congestion is a rapidly rising challenge in today’s cities, which result in longer travel times, increased pollution levels, and economic drawbacks. Traditional traffic control methods, which often rely on fixed rules, struggle to handle the dynamic and complex nature of modern traffic. In this study, we explore how machine learning can be used to classify traffic congestion levels more effectively using real-time data. We experimented with several models—like Support Vector Machines (SVM), Random Forests, Gradient Boosting, Deep Neural Networks, and various ensemble techniques. Our findings show that ensemble models, which combine the strengths of multiple classifiers, perform better in terms of accuracy and reliability compared to individual models. We also look at recent advancements in deep learning, including artificial neural networks (ANNs), gated recurrent units (GRUs), and hybrid models, to see how they enhance congestion prediction. We also evaluate how well these deep learning solutions perform in scenarios set in real world by looking at key factors like computational efficiency, feasibility for real-time use, and how well they scale. This provides a more complete picture of their potential in smart traffic management. Putting aside academic interest, applying machine learning to real time traffic classification has significant real world value, offering practical solutions to everyday urban mobility challenges.. With cities slowly becoming complex systems, traffic management needs to be better,more agile, responsive, and data-driven. This paper bridges that gap by combining the usual machine learning methods with deep learning and ensemble approaches. Besides classification, these models open up the path towards smarter decision-making in urban planning. It also addresses how developments in sensor technologies, IoT, and federated learning paradigms are reshaping the future of traffic analytics, while preserving data privacy without sacrificing real-time model flexibility. By identifying gridlocks, predicting congestion trends, and optimizing route management, these models can actively reduce emissions and travel delays, contributing to a more sustainable urban future. The experimental evaluation revealed that among all tested algorithms, the Artificial Neural Network (ANN) with the Swush activation function achieved the highest classification accuracy of 99.79% outperforming ensemble and traditional machine learning models. The findings highlight the feasibility of deploying such models in real-time traffic management systems to optimize routing and minimize congestion-related emissions.

Machine learning (ML) is a subdivision of artificial intelligence in which the machine learns from machine-readable data and information. It uses data, learns the pattern and predicts the new outcomes. Its popularity is growing because it helps to understand the trend and provides a solution that can be either a model or a product. Applications of ML algorithms have increased drastically in G.I.S. and remote sensing in recent years. It has a broad range of applications, from developing energy-based models to assessing soil liquefaction to creating a relation between air quality and mortality. Here, in this paper, we discuss the most popular supervised ML models (classification and regression) in G.I.S. and remote sensing. The motivation for writing this paper is that ML models produce higher accuracy than traditional parametric classifiers, especially for complex data with many predictor variables. This paper provides a general overview of some popular supervised non-parametric ML models that can be used in most of the G.I.S. and remote sensing based projects. We discuss classification (Naïve Bayes (NB), Support Vector Machine (SVM), Random Forest (RF), Decision Trees (DT)) and regression models (Random Forest (RF), Support Vector Machine (SVM), Linear and Non-Linear) here. Therefore, the article can be a guide to those interested in using ML models in their G.I.S. and remote sensing based projects.