Predictive Models for Interest Rate Forecasting Using Machine Learning: A Comparative Analysis and Practical Application

Optimizing asphalt mix design through predicting effective asphalt content and absorbed asphalt content using machine learning

PurposeThe first transmission of coronavirus to humans started in Wuhan city of China, took the shape of a pandemic called Corona Virus Disease 2019 (COVID-19), and posed a principal threat to the entire world. The researchers are trying to inculcate artificial intelligence (Machine learning or deep learning models) for the efficient detection of COVID-19. This research explores all the existing machine learning (ML) or deep learning (DL) models, used for COVID-19 detection which may help the researcher to explore in different directions. The main purpose of this review article is to present a compact overview of the application of artificial intelligence to the research experts, helping them to explore the future scopes of improvement.MethodsThe researchers have used various machine learning, deep learning, and a combination of machine and deep learning models for extracting significant features and classifying various health conditions in COVID-19 patients. For this purpose, the researchers have utilized different image modalities such as CT-Scan, X-Ray, etc. This study has collected over 200 research papers from various repositories like Google Scholar, PubMed, Web of Science, etc. These research papers were passed through various levels of scrutiny and finally, 50 research articles were selected.ResultsIn those listed articles, the ML / DL models showed an accuracy of 99% and above while performing the classification of COVID-19. This study has also presented various clinical applications of various research. This study specifies the importance of various machine and deep learning models in the field of medical diagnosis and research.ConclusionIn conclusion, it is evident that ML/DL models have made significant progress in recent years, but there are still limitations that need to be addressed. Overfitting is one such limitation that can lead to incorrect predictions and overburdening of the models. The research community must continue to work towards finding ways to overcome these limitations and make machine and deep learning models even more effective and efficient. Through this ongoing research and development, we can expect even greater advances in the future.

Machine learning (ML) models provide more choices to patients with diabetes mellitus (DM) to more properly manage blood glucose (BG) levels. However, because of numerous types of ML algorithms, choosing an appropriate model is vitally important. In a systematic review and network meta-analysis, this study aimed to comprehensively assess the performance of ML models in predicting BG levels. In addition, we assessed ML models used to detect and predict adverse BG (hypoglycemia) events by calculating pooled estimates of sensitivity and specificity. PubMed, Embase, Web of Science, and Institute of Electrical and Electronics Engineers Explore databases were systematically searched for studies on predicting BG levels and predicting or detecting adverse BG events using ML models, from inception to November 2022. Studies that assessed the performance of different ML models in predicting or detecting BG levels or adverse BG events of patients with DM were included. Studies with no derivation or performance metrics of ML models were excluded. The Quality Assessment of Diagnostic Accuracy Studies tool was applied to assess the quality of included studies. Primary outcomes were the relative ranking of ML models for predicting BG levels in different prediction horizons (PHs) and pooled estimates of the sensitivity and specificity of ML models in detecting or predicting adverse BG events. In total, 46 eligible studies were included for meta-analysis. Regarding ML models for predicting BG levels, the means of the absolute root mean square error (RMSE) in a PH of 15, 30, 45, and 60 minutes were 18.88 (SD 19.71), 21.40 (SD 12.56), 21.27 (SD 5.17), and 30.01 (SD 7.23) mg/dL, respectively. The neural network model (NNM) showed the highest relative performance in different PHs. Furthermore, the pooled estimates of the positive likelihood ratio and the negative likelihood ratio of ML models were 8.3 (95% CI 5.7-12.0) and 0.31 (95% CI 0.22-0.44), respectively, for predicting hypoglycemia and 2.4 (95% CI 1.6-3.7) and 0.37 (95% CI 0.29-0.46), respectively, for detecting hypoglycemia. Statistically significant high heterogeneity was detected in all subgroups, with different sources of heterogeneity. For predicting precise BG levels, the RMSE increases with a rise in the PH, and the NNM shows the highest relative performance among all the ML models. Meanwhile, current ML models have sufficient ability to predict adverse BG events, while their ability to detect adverse BG events needs to be enhanced. PROSPERO CRD42022375250; https://www.crd.york.ac.uk/prospero/display_record.php?RecordID=375250.

Accurate precipitation forecasting is a vital task for many domains, such as agriculture, water management, flood prevention, and crop yield estimation. The use of machine learning (ML) approaches has improved precipitation forecasting accuracy, exhibiting promising results in capturing the intricate connections between various meteorological variables and precipitation patterns. However, given the vast array of available ML models, a comparative analysis is imperative for identifying the most effective models for precipitation prediction. This study aims to examine the capacities of ML algorithms to forecast precipitation based on weather data for the city of Casablanca, Morocco, which faces challenges in water management and climate change adaptation. Eight different ML models’ performances are compared: linear regression, polynomial regression, K-nearest neighbors (KNN), support vector machine (SVM), decision tree (DT), random forest (RF), XGBoost, and an ensemble learning model. These models are evaluated based on their mean absolute error (MAE), mean squared error (MSE), and R-squared (R2 ) value to determine their effectiveness. The study showcases the potential of ML models in predicting precipitation by utilizing meteorological parameters such as temperature, humidity, wind speed, and pressure.

The marine microalga Isochrysis galbana is prolific producer of fucoxanthin, which is a xanthophyll carotenoid with substantial global market value boasting extensive applications in the food, nutraceutical, pharmaceutical, and cosmetic industries. This study presented a novel integrated experimental approach coupled with machine learning (ML) models to predict the fucoxanthin content in I. galbana by altering the type and concentration of phytohormone supplementation, thus overcoming the multiple methodological limitations of conventional fucoxanthin quantification. A novel integrated experimental approach was developed, analyzing the effect of varying phytohormone types and concentrations on fucoxanthin production in I. galbana. Morphological analysis was conducted to assess changes in microalgal structure, while growth rate and fucoxanthin yield correlations were explored using statistical analysis and machine learning models. Several ML models were employed to predict fucoxanthin content, with and without hormone descriptors as variables. The findings revealed that the Random Forest (RF) model was highly significant with a high of 0.809 and of 0.776 when hormone descriptors were excluded, and the inclusion of hormone descriptors further improved prediction accuracy to of 0.839, making it a useful tool for predicting the fucoxanthin yield. The model that fitted the experimental data indicated methyl jasmonate (0.2 mg/L) as an effective phytohormone. The combined experimental and ML approach demonstrated rapid, reliable, and cost-efficient prediction of fucoxanthin yield. This study highlights the potential of machine learning models, particularly Random Forest, to optimize parameters influencing microalgal growth and fucoxanthin production. This approach offers a more efficient alternative to conventional methods, providing valuable insights into improving fucoxanthin production in microalgal cultivation. The findings suggest that leveraging diverse ML models can enhance the predictability and efficiency of fucoxanthin production, making it a promising tool for industrial applications.

Accurate assessment of training status in team sports is crucial for optimising performance and reducing injury risk. This pilot study investigates the feasibility of using machine learning (ML) models to estimate oxygen uptake (VO2) with wearable sensors during team sports activities. Six healthy male team sports athletes participated in the study. Data were collected using inertial measurement units (IMU), heart rate monitors, and breathing rate sensors during incremental fitness tests. The performance of different ML models, including multiple linear regression (MLR), XGBoost, and deep learning models (LSTM, CNN, MLP), was compared using raw and engineered features from IMU data. Results indicate that while LSTM models with raw IMU data provided the most accurate predictions (RMSE: 4.976, MAE: 3.698 [Formula: see text]), MLR models remained competitive, especially with engineered features. Multi-sensor configurations, particularly those including sensors on the torso and limbs, enhanced prediction accuracy. The findings demonstrate the potential of ML models to monitor VO2 noninvasively in real-time, offering valuable insights into the internal physiological demand during team sports activities.

We examine predictive machine learning studies from 50 top business and economic journals published between 2010 and 2023. We investigate their trans-parency regarding the predictive performance of machine learning models compared to less complex traditional statistical models that require fewer resources in terms of time and energy. First, we find that the adoption of machine learning varies by discipline. Machine learning is most frequently used in information systems, marketing, and operations research journals. Second, our analysis reveals that 28% of studies do not benchmark the predictive performance of ma-chine learning models against traditional statistical models. These studies receive fewer citations, arguably due to a less rigorous analysis. Studies including traditional statistical models as benchmarks typically report high outperformance for the best machine learning model. However, the performance improvement is substantially lower for the average reported machine learning model. We claim that because of opaque reporting practices, it often remains unclear whether the predictive gains justify the increased costs of more complex models. We advocate for standardized, transparent model reporting that relates predictive gains to the efficiency of machine learning models compared to less-costly traditional statistical models.

A comparison of physical-based and machine learning modeling for soil salt dynamics in crop fields

Background Peripheral Arterial Disease(PAD) is a prevalent cardiovascular condition affecting millions worldwide, and the advent of machine learning(ML) techniques offers promising opportunities to enhance risk prediction and personalise patient management in this complex disease. This systematic review and meta-analysis aimed to evaluate the performance of ML models in predicting adverse outcomes in PAD patients compared to traditional statistical approaches. Methods A comprehensive search of major databases(MEDLINE,EMBASE,CINAHL,Cochrane CENTRAL) was conducted for studies published between 2000 and 2024. Two reviewers independently screened studies, extracted data, and assessed risk of bias using the PROBAST tool. The quality of included studies was also assessed using criteria outlined by Qiao et al. A modified Hierarchical Summary Receiver Operating Characteristic(HSROC) analysis was performed to compare the predictive performance of various ML models and traditional regression methods. Results Thirteen studies met the inclusion criteria. Gradient boosted models demonstrated the highest predictive performance with a diagnostic odds ratio(DOR) of 36.593(95% CI:24.44-54.79), sensitivity of 0.853, and specificity of 0.863. The best performing ML models for outcomes within 2 years, showed a DOR of 34.169(95% CI:22.840-51.117). Traditional regression models consistently underperformed compared to ML approaches, with the lowest DOR of 3.326(95% CI:1.814-6.097). The quality assessment revealed a mix of methodological rigor, with 54% of studies rated as low risk of bias and 46% as unclear. Conclusion Advanced ML techniques demonstrate superior predictive power for adverse outcomes in PAD patients compared to traditional regression methods.

Understanding the Performance of Machine Learning Models to Predict Credit Default: A Novel Approach for Supervisory Evaluation

Machine Learning Models in the Prediction of One-Year Mortality in Patients With Advanced Hepatocellular Cancer on Immunotherapy

COVID-19 is highly infectious and causes acute respiratory disease. Machine learning (ML) and deep learning (DL) models are vital in detecting disease from computerized chest tomography (CT) scans. The DL models outperformed the ML models. For COVID-19 detection from CT scan images, DL models are used as end-to-end models. Thus, the performance of the model is evaluated for the quality of the extracted feature and classification accuracy. There are four contributions included in this work. First, this research is motivated by studying the quality of the extracted feature from the DL by feeding these extracted to an ML model. In other words, we proposed comparing the end-to-end DL model performance against the approach of using DL for feature extraction and ML for the classification of COVID-19 CT scan images. Second, we proposed studying the effect of fusing extracted features from image descriptors, e.g., Scale-Invariant Feature Transform (SIFT), with extracted features from DL models. Third, we proposed a new Convolutional Neural Network (CNN) to be trained from scratch and then compared to the deep transfer learning on the same classification problem. Finally, we studied the performance gap between classic ML models against ensemble learning models. The proposed framework is evaluated using a CT dataset, where the obtained results are evaluated using five different metrics The obtained results revealed that using the proposed CNN model is better than using the well-known DL model for the purpose of feature extraction. Moreover, using a DL model for feature extraction and an ML model for the classification task achieved better results in comparison to using an end-to-end DL model for detecting COVID-19 CT scan images. Of note, the accuracy rate of the former method improved by using ensemble learning models instead of the classic ML models. The proposed method achieved the best accuracy rate of 99.39%.

We previously developed machine learning (ML) models for predicting cycloplegic spherical equivalent refraction (SER) and myopia using non-cycloplegic data and following a standardized protocol (cycloplegia with 0.5% tropicamide and biometry using NIDEK A-scan), but the models’ performance may not be generalizable to other settings. This study evaluated the performance of ML models in an independent cohort using a different cycloplegic agent and biometer. Chinese students (N = 614) aged 8–13 years underwent autorefraction before and after cycloplegia with 0.5% tropicamide (n = 505) or 1% cyclopentolate (n = 109). Biometric measures were obtained using an IOLMaster 700 (n = 207) or Optical Biometer SW-9000 (n = 407). ML models were evaluated using R2, mean absolute error (MAE), sensitivity, specificity, and area under the ROC curve (AUC). The XGBoost model predicted cycloplegic SER very well (R2 = 0.95, MAE (SD) = 0.32 (0.30) D). Both ML models predicted myopia well (random forest: AUC 0.99, sensitivity 93.7%, specificity 96.4%; XGBoost: sensitivity 90.1%, specificity 96.8%) and accurately predicted the myopia rate (observed 62.9%; random forest: 60.6%; XGBoost: 58.8%) despite heterogeneous cycloplegia and biometry factors. In this independent cohort of students, XGBoost and random forest performed very well for predicting cycloplegic SER and myopia status using non-cycloplegic data. This external validation study demonstrated that ML may provide a useful tool for estimating cycloplegic SER and myopia prevalence with heterogeneous clinical parameters, and study in additional populations is warranted.

Simple SummaryEffective models for predicting non-functioning pituitary neuro-endocrine tumours (NF PitNET) recurrence and regrowth following surgical intervention remain elusive. Previous studies have identified conflicting risk factors in predictions of tumour progression for patients receiving surgery for NF PitNET. The aim of this study was to develop machine learning (ML) models to improve prediction of post-operative NF PitNET progression up to 15 years following surgery. ML models were shown to be effective for predicting tumour remission, stability, and regrowth, but were non-performant when predicting tumour recurrence or reduction in size. The extent of surgical resection was shown to have the strongest influence in the performant models, with lesser influence from age, tumour volume, and the use of post-operative radiotherapy, and with no influence shown from pre- or post-operative endocrine function.Post-operative tumour progression in patients with non-functioning pituitary neuroendocrine tumours is variable. The aim of this study was to use machine learning (ML) models to improve the prediction of post-operative outcomes in patients with NF PitNET. We studied data from 383 patients who underwent surgery with or without radiotherapy, with a follow-up period between 6 months and 15 years. ML models, including k-nearest neighbour (KNN), support vector machine (SVM), and decision tree, showed superior performance in predicting tumour progression when compared with parametric statistical modelling using logistic regression, with SVM achieving the highest performance. The strongest predictor of tumour progression was the extent of surgical resection, with patient age, tumour volume, and the use of radiotherapy also showing influence. No features showed an association with tumour recurrence following a complete resection. In conclusion, this study demonstrates the potential of ML models in predicting post-operative outcomes for patients with NF PitNET. Future work should look to include additional, more granular, multicentre data, including incorporating imaging and operative video data.

ABSTRACTIntroduction:This study aimed to evaluate the usefulness of machine learning (ML) and neural network (NN) models versus traditional statistical methods for estimating biochemical recurrence (BCR) in men following robot-assisted radical prostatectomy (RARP).Methods:Patients who underwent RARP from November 2011 to July 2022 were taken in the study. Patients with BCR were assigned to Group 2, whereas those without BCR were placed in Group 1. Preoperative and postoperative parameters, together with demographic data, were recorded in the database. This study used one NN, the radial basis function NN (RBFNN), and two ML approaches, the K-nearest neighbor and XGboost ML models, to predict BCR.Results:Following the application of exclusion criteria, 516 patients were deemed eligible for the study. Of those, 234 (45.3%) developed BCR, and 282 (54.7%) did not. The results showed that the median follow-up period was 24 (15–42) months, and the median BCR diagnosis was 12.23 ± 15.58 months. The area under the curve (AUC) for the Cox proportional hazard analysis was 0.77. The receiver-operating characteristic curves (AUCs) for the XGBoost and K closest neighbor models were 0.82 and 0.69, respectively. The RBFNN’s AUC was 0.82.Conclusions:The classical statistical model was outperformed by XGBoost and RBFNN models in predicting BCR.