Выявление и анализ взаимосвязи между экономической безопасностью и эффективностью внешнеэкономической деятельности Астраханской области

The article substantiates that the main stage while evaluating both the separate constituent and the entire economic security of the enterprise is to evaluate the time, which makes the enterprise lag behind with ensuring this security component and general desired level of economic security. It is determined that the time itself is not the mechanism for manifestation of regularities and tendencies, however, it accumulates the actions of the principal factors and expresses them through the trend levelling. The author accepts the suggestion that the influence of all the main factors can be shown on the time basis. The enterprise’s economic security is represented by the hierarchic structure, on the lowest levels of which its separate constituents are found, and the latter ones integrating establish other economic security types that are found on the highest levels of the hierarchy. In the situations, when the enterprise does not lag behind with ensuring a definite security level (evaluated through the determined planned and normative values of fixed security indicators), then the time deficit equals to zero. Consequently, it is proposed to evaluate the time stock for reaching a definite level by the economic security (the time for ensuring both the separate security constituents and the entire economic security as a whole). It is proposed to determine the general time by the amount of time necessary for reaching the determined values (standards, plans, etc.) by separate indicators of economic security and its constituents. It is described that when parallel ensuring the various constituents of economic security happens, then the searched time value will make not an amount, but the maximum from its corresponding values, necessary for the mentioned ensuring. The author determines that during the integration of the obtained time indices it is reasonable to apply two approaches in order to evaluate those economic security types, which are on the highest levels of its hierarchic structure. According to the first approach, it is proposed to determine the time indices on the basis of using the functions of trends, which characterize the actual internal tendencies of the processes analyzed, by time, their external manifestations obtained taking into consideration the corresponding coefficients of weight. In accordance with the second approach, the article proposes to use the time periods determined on the basis of prediction. It is proposed for the first time to determine the speed of changing indices – indicators of economic security.

The article considers the main approaches of the theory of economic security. The concepts of "ensuring economic security", "managing economic security", "regulating the economic security of the region" are studied. The impacts affecting the adaptive readiness of the regional economic security complex, reflected in the concepts of "threat", "risk", "factor", "challenge" are noted. The expediency of a multi-vector approach to the organization of regulatory impacts of state and municipal government bodies aimed at ensuring the economic security of the country's regions in the context of overcoming modern threats is determined. A thesis is formulated about the place of regulation of regional economic security as an integral link between the systemic federal level of national security and heterogeneous regions of the country. Using the example of Perm Krai, the dynamics of the main indicators of regional economic security and their relationship with similar indicators of the Volga Federal District and the Russian Federation are considered, and an assessment of existing trends is carried out. The analysis of the elaboration of regulatory and legal documents of the Perm Territory using the extrapolation method of processing official statistics information has established the insufficiency of the measures taken to improve strategic planning in the region in the context of taking into account changing factors and conditions of the external environment. Significant deviations of the achieved results in ensuring the economic security of the Perm Territory from the forecast values approved by the strategic planning documents have been revealed, in particular in achieving the planned indicators in the areas of industrial and environmental safety of the region. It is proposed to revise the content of regulatory documents with the corresponding budget and resource content for the timely adaptation of the region to modern threats and challenges. It is recommended to pay special attention to such areas of economic security of the Perm Territory as: technological sovereignty, investment security and environmental protection.

The purpose of the article is to develop a methodological approach towards assessing the economic security of institutions of higher education. Methodology. There has been generalized the experience of foreign universities in terms of providing high standards of educational and research process in the context of ensuring their economic security in modern conditions. The study has been conducted on the comparison of aggregate indicators of the economic security of HEIs based on the results of factor analysis (the method of the main components). The output data are formed taking into account the main approaches to constructing a balanced system of indicators based on the results of cluster analysis. The integral indicators of economic security of HEIs and integral indicators of economic security in general have been calculated based on the values of factor loadings and weighting coefficients of indicators for each group. Results. The system of performance indicators of the world leading universities has been formed and the key factors of economic security of foreign universities have been identified taking into account the generalized experience of foreign universities. The developed methodological approach to the assessment is universal and provides opportunities for developing measures to improve the level of economic security of institutions of higher education. Studies have shown that the economic security of economic entities is not least determined by the management efficiency of intellectual resources. Practical implications. The calculated level of HEI economic security is an indicator not only for protecting it from threats but also for the causal link between socio-economic development of the state, its economic potential and the level of higher education. Value/originality. The holistic scientific and practical study has been carried out in the article taking into account the interconnection of higher education and economic security of institutions of higher education and a methodical approach to the evaluation of the economic security of HEIs has been developed. The above stipulates the necessity of developing a methodological approach to assessing the risks to the economic security of institutions of higher education on the basis of possible threats to their activities.

Despite vast research has been carried out and a great number of approaches are available to assess the economic security of enterprises, currently a range of security-related issues are yet beyond the research agenda, thus triggering a need for their thorough investigation and interpretation, in particular this refers to a contradictedness concept underpinned by the inverse relationship between its level (state) and a management decision which can be effective subject to certain economic indicators. The purpose of this study is to develop theoretical and methodological approaches to assess the enterprise economic security with due regard to management decisions effectiveness. To attain the research objectives, the following research methods have been employed: generalization – to draw conclusions from a primary sources content analysis, analysis and synthesis – to provide deeper understanding of the key research categories along with specifying the economic security indicators. The study suggests an ambivalent approach to the perception of management decisions. Using the example of a decision made as to the implementation of an investment project, it is demonstrated that, in contrast to the existing approaches (in which it is viewed as an anti-crisis measure and a tool to boost the level of economic security), in fact, the project may be effective from the position of enhancing the key economic indicators, however it will fail from the perspective of increasing the level of economic security. In this context, the indicators of the investment project economic efficiency have been updated with a focus towards enhancing the enterprise economic security. The study presents an algorithm to test the investment feasibility together with evaluating its impact on the level and the state of the enterprise economic security. The authors also provide a classification of effects from management decisions aimed at increasing the level of economic security. In addition to the above, a chain modeling algorithm is proposed to assess the state of economic security taking into account the rate of change in reaching by security indicators (and its individual elements) their liminal values. The use of this algorithm allows to predict the effects of multiple alternatives in management decision-making on the state of the enterprise economic security. An improved brute force methodological approach applied to investing in processes (projects) to ensure the enterprise economic security provides for a more balanced approach when making appropriate management decisions. The proposals made have important practical implications since they expand the management analytics capabilities and allow to consider the effects from management decisions on the enterprise economic security.

During the last two decades The Russian Federation experienced a serious external pressure on the part of western countries, including the impact of unfair competition on global commodity markets and sectional costs. At the same time global geo-political space is undergoing changes too. Principle risks and threats to national and regional economic security, which kept arising in the previous years in many regions of the country, are becoming the most topical. Our home market demonstrates different dynamics of its development, which is characterized by low economic growth, regional disproportions in social and economic development, shortage of investment. Positive indicators include relative sustainability of economy, surplus of regional budgets, success of certain entities of the country in attaining strategic goals, a high level of openness of Federation entities’ economy. In this context identification of key risks and threats to regional economic security acquires special importance, designing approaches to their minimization and elimination is also essential. Unfortunately, there is no universal approach to their elimination in the global practice, however, it is possible to lower their impact on social and economic sphere. The authors analyzed a number of key factors influencing economic security in regions. Two large macro-regions of Russia, i. e. the Central and the Privolzhskiy Federal districts were investigated. Using their example entities, which are included in these districts, were typified by dynamics of certain indicators. It showed serious differentiation, the trends of investment shortage dominates in the majority of regions. In both districts, mentioned above the share of investment into fixed capital in gross regional product and returns on assets ratio decreased. Only the Kaluga region as an entity of the Central Federal district shows positive dynamics. Specific weight of shipped innovation products in the total volume of industrial output (indicator) demonstrates the level of economic security of the area in view of its competitiveness. The authors showed that the number of regions with growing dynamics of innovation products output is prevailing. Disproportions in key indicators of regional economic security were found. Positive factors of its growth, such as availability of serious potential of innovation economy development were identified.

This article describes the procedure and provides a list of main stages of determining the integral indicator of economic security of state information, describes an innovative security indicator of economic information. It was determined which main components of the innovation and information economy segment of the country are the most influential on the general state of industry. On the basis of defined integral innovative indicator of security of economic information and set of indeces of innovative information industry, a multifaceted regressive model was developed, on which we can make a prognostication of investigated indicator for a specific period of time. A set of dynamics was formed, to which trend analysis to determine trends equation was applied, by which the predicted values of indicators of innovative and information industry were found. Using scenario-based approach three versions of prognostication of the integral indicator of economic information security of the state for 2020 were made.

The purpose of this paper is to conduct a comprehensive study of economic security in the EU Member States and Ukraine, to identify differences and to propose targeted policy interventions based on these differences. Methodology. The study uses a quantitative strategy that assigns numerical ratings to countries based on their performance against predefined thresholds for various economic security indicators. These indicators include industrial security, demographic security, energy security, foreign trade security, investment and innovation security, macroeconomic security, food security, social security and financial security. The study uses data from a variety of sources and applies a ranking system to reflect the level of economic security in each category. Results. The analysis revealed significant differences in the levels of economic security between EU Member States and Ukraine. The main findings include differences in agricultural efficiency, healthcare system efficiency, renewable energy consumption, trade balance, research and development expenditure, and socio-economic factors. For example, countries such as Belgium and Ireland have high yields, while Cyprus and Romania have much lower yields. Life expectancy and the quality of healthcare also vary: Spain and Sweden lead the way, while Bulgaria and Ukraine lag behind. Practical implications. The findings suggest the need for targeted policies and technological advances to improve economic security. For the younger generation, marketing strategies based on brand equity and exclusivity can continue even during economic downturns. For the older generation, strategies that focus on value for money or lower prices may be more effective. Understanding these metrics can help businesses align their strategies with national economic priorities and identify potential areas for investment and growth. Value / Оriginality. This study contributes to the existing literature by providing a detailed comparative analysis of economic security in the EU Member States and Ukraine, filling a gap in the understanding of the multifaceted aspects of economic security in these regions.

Due to a number of external uncontrolled factors of negative influence, Ukrainian business entities functioning in the hospitality and tourism business have seen the most severe crisis and depression over the past three years. In order to survive in such conditions and develop the business intensively, Ukrainian business entities must clearly define internal problematic aspects to correct them promptly, as well as the potential opportunities towards which the maximum effort should be directed. The article offers and justifies an approach to assessing the financial and economic security of hospitality and tourism business entities in the complex modern conditions under which the Ukrainian economy is developing. In order to achieve the research goal, the methods of systematization, grouping, and logical generalization were applied.The article systematizes the key aspects of ensuring the financial and economic security for the company's activities that should be followed by its management, describes the structure of an enterprise's financial and economic security, and formulates the concept of financial and economic security for business entities in hospitality and tourism. The paper also specifies the sequence of stages, which would be advisable to follow when managing the financial and economic security of hospitality and tourism enterprises. The authors have summarized the approaches to assessing an enterprise's financial and economic security in modern literature and have grouped the indicators of financial and economic security for hospitality and tourism business enterprises. The study analyzes the dynamics of financial indicators which comprehensively characterize the functioning of temporary accommodation and catering enterprises, as well as economic operators of tourist activity in Ukraine and offers an approach to assessing the financial and economic security of hospitality and tourism business enterprises which base their activities on the innovation potential. The results of the study prove that differentiating and operating the components of hospitality and tourism business operators' innovation potential is expedient and improves their financial and economic security.The practical significance of the obtained results lies in increasing the financial and economic security and innovativeness of hospitality and tourism business enterprises in Ukraine by applying the proposed approach to evaluation as a monitoring tool.

В будь-якій країні обсяг оборонних витрат залежить від рівня воєнної та економічної безпеки держави. Тобто, щоб адекватно відреагувати на зміни стану воєнно-економічної безпеки країни необхідно оцінити її рівень з урахуванням ресурсних можливостей держави на час оцінювання, та тільки після цього приймати рішення щодо частки збільшення, або зменшення оборонних витрат країни. Побудова шкали оцінювання рівня воєнно-економічної безпеки, яка дозволяє дослідити чутливість отриманої оцінки рівня воєнно-економічної безпеки держави до зміни вхідних даних та підвищити стабільність прийнятих рішень за цією оцінкою є актуальним та необхідним завданням сьогодення. В статті шкалу оцінювання рівня воєнно-економічної безпеки пропонується задавати на основі нечітко-множинної математичної моделі. Використання нечітко-множинної математичної моделі для побудови шкали оцінювання рівня воєнно-економічної безпеки, надасть можливість оперувати частковими нечіткими показниками оцінок за складовими показників ресурсного забезпечення воєнно-економічної безпеки держави з метою можливості дослідження питань аналізу чутливості отриманої оцінки рівня воєнно-економічної безпеки держави до зміни вхідних даних та підвищення стабільності прийнятих рішень відповідно до цієї оцінки.

The relevance of the study is associated with the importance of import substitution development in Russia. The chapter examines the dynamics of dependence on foreign goods, services and technologies in various industries, the dynamics of industrial production development, and the introduction of advanced production technologies, the dynamics of import quotas and commodity structure of imports. The authors shows the dependence of Russian industrial enterprises on the main categories of imports, suggests ways to ensure the economic security of regions during the implementation of import substitution programs, and indicators for assessing the impact of import substitution processes on Russia's economic security. A conclusion is made about the need to supplement the list of indicators of Russia's economic security with indicators of import substitution effectiveness.

The article reveals the essence of the process of digitalization of the Ukrainian economy in the conditions of increasing external threats associated with the formation of an open economic system and deep transformational ties in global economic relations. Economic relations in the intellectual sphere, related to the innovative activities of Ukrainian enterprises, are the subject of attention of both international transatlantic enterprises and state structures, which are associated with a weakening of the competitiveness of state-owned and export-oriented enterprises and ultimately limit the independence and autonomy of the state. In this context, the importance of financial and economic security and the formation of fundamentally new systems for the protection of intellectual resources of Ukrainian companies and limiting the influence of the country’s companies on modern information, telecommunications and modernization communication systems, which can be the object of information attacks and threats to the production infrastructure, is rapidly growing. Financial and economic security strategies are defined, which are calculated for a long time and are necessary for an effective financial management system, which is able to ensure a compromise between the interests of the development of the enterprise, the availability of a sufficient level of cash and ensuring the solvency of the enterprise. Considered possible threats and a number of destabilizing factors associated with unfair competition and violation of norms, principles and laws that underlie the market economic system. On the basis of the proposed indicators of financial and economic security of production economic systems, a model of financial and economic security of enterprises has been developed, the essence of such a model is the ability to identify, monitor and calculate possible threats and establish the degree of critical security for enterprises as separate types of threats and determine the complex effect of identified threats on the possibility of creating a state of crisis and destroying the economic system of enterprises.

The article analyzes the state of economic security of domestic enterprises under martial law, identifies the main threats to their activity, outlines the main direct and indirect consequences of the influence of active hostilities on ensuring the economic security of economic entities. The need to change approaches to ensuring their effective functioning is determined, namely the expediency of using a compliance approach at industrial enterprises regarding the functioning of achieving sustainable development of an industrial enterprise, achieving a system of goals (social, economic, environmental, etc.) is substantiated. It was established that profit, as the ultimate goal of activity, loses its priority value. It becomes only one of the economic goals and fulfills the functional task of a means of achieving the system of enterprise goals. Not only traditional components (economic, social, environmental), but also indicators of economic security become important during the reconstruction and transformation of the development of the enterprise. A possible approach to the identification of a security component is to take into account an important factor - compliance-security, the use of which at the enterprise level determines the protection of its vital interests from external and internal violations of regulatory legal acts, standards, founding and internal documents of the enterprise by means of identification, assessment and maximum reduction (elimination) of compliance destroyers.

The relevance of the study is due to the increasing role of artificial intelligence (AI) in ensuring the economic security of the banking sector against the background of digital transformation and growing volatility of global financial markets. The analysis of the impact of AI-technologies on the value of financial organizations is of particular importance, which allows to identify optimal strategies for their implementation. The purpose of the study is to assess the effectiveness of AI solutions in bank management on the example of China Construction Bank and to determine their impact on the indicators of economic security and market value of the bank. The methodological framework includes a comprehensive quantitative and qualitative analysis of key performance indicators for the period 2016-2024, comparative assessment of four basic sectors: competitiveness, liquidity, management efficiency and additional indicators. The main results show that the systematic implementation of AI algorithms allowed the bank to significantly improve operational efficiency through real-time tracking of external environment changes, monitoring of financial indicators and forecasting of development scenarios. This ensured sustainable growth in the bank’s market value even in the face of pandemic and geopolitical instability. Scientific novelty consists in the confirmation of the hypothesis of positive correlation between the level of technological equipment of the bank and its value, as well as in the development of a methodology for assessing the effectiveness of AI solutions. The practical significance of the research consists in the possibility of using the obtained data to improve the economic risk management system in the banking sector. The results can be applied by other financial organizations in the development of digital transformation strategies. Areas for further research include studying the impact of different types of AI solutions on certain aspects of banking activities, as well as assessing the long-term effects of their implementation. It is recommended to expand the geography of the study to include other large banks.

The article studies the state of the standard of living indicators of the Primorsky Krai population and their impact on the indicators of socio-economic security. The analysis is carried out using the data and methodology of state statistics bodies used in statistical observations of the standard of living of the population; the Methodological Provisions for the calculation of monetary income and monetary expenses indicators approved by the State Statistics Committee. The dynamics of average per capita, real, and median monetary incomes of the Primorsky Krai, the Far Eastern Federal District, and Russia were compared; the composition and structure of monetary expenses and incomes, changes in savings of the Primorsky Krai population, the ratio of nominal and real wages and consumer price index in dynamics, the distribution of residents by the size of average per capita income, income inequality and differentiation, and poverty level were analyzed. It is concluded that the state of the standard of living is generally favorable, reflecting regional and national trends. There was an increase in nominal and real monetary income, the share of citizens with higher incomes increased, and the poverty rate was decreasing and was within the state target values. At the same time, there was instability in the indicators: real monetary income grew slower than nominal income and, in some periods, declined; the median income was lower than the average per capita income; and the growth of inflation in recent years has led to a significant gap between nominal and real wages. There is a significant gap between the incomes of the rich and the poor, inequality in income distribution. The correlation between the standard of living indicators and the indicator of economic security is analyzed. The model of pair correlation describing the dependence of the funds coefficient on the Gini coefficient was formed, which can be used in forecasting for the future to fulfill the tasks of minimizing the threats set in the Presidential Decrees.

В современных условиях экономическая безопасность страны стала главным атрибутом всеобщего внимания. Связано это с событием, произошедшим 24 февраля 2022 г., — началом специальной военной операции на Украине, которая продолжается до сих пор. Присоединение ДНР, ЛНР и Запорожской областей только усугубило ситуацию и увеличило давление стран Запада и ЕС на Россию. Российская Федерация подверглась огромному количеству санкций со стороны Запада и ЕС в целом, что достаточно сильно повлияло на экономическую безопасность страны. Очень большое влияние санкции оказали и на основные показатели экономической безопасности России. Все ответные меры, предпринимаемые Российской Федерацией для отстаивания своих границ, сказываются не только на странах Запада, на которые направлены данные санкции, но и на саму Россию, а также на показатели экономической безопасности. Прогнозирование на годы вперёд достаточно тяжёлое, так как неизвестно даже ближайшее будущее. Прогнозы, которые дают аналитики и экономисты достаточно противоречивы, что естественно в современных реалиях. На некоторые показатели разброс настолько огромен, что сложно даже предположить, что ждёт Россию и её экономическую безопасность. В данной статье мы рассмотрим показатели экономической безопасности Российской Федерации за прошедший 2021 г., прогнозы на окончание 2022 г., а также плановые показатели на 2023—2025 гг. После рассмотрения текущих и плановых показателей дадим свою оценку и видение ситуации, а также свои выводы по данным прогнозам. Таким образом, несмотря на всё давление, оказываемое на Российскую Федерацию странами Запада и ЕС в целом, Россия старается сделать всё для поддержания высокого уровня экономической безопасности, находя выходы из, казалось бы, безвыходных ситуаций. In modern conditions, the economic security of the country has become the main attribute of everyone’s attention. This is due to the event that took place on February 24, 2022 — the start of a special military operation in Ukraine, which is still ongoing. With the accession of the DPR, LPR and Zaporozhye regions, the situation was only aggravated by the pressure of Western countries and the EU on Russia. The Russian Federation was subjected to a huge number of sanctions from the West and the EU as a whole, which had a rather strong impact on the economic security of the country. The sanctions also had a great impact on the main indicators of Russia’s economic security. All retaliatory measures taken by the Russian Federation to defend its borders affect not only the Western countries that are targeted by these sanctions, but also Russia itself and economic security indicators. Forecasting for the coming years is quite difficult, since even the near future is unknown. The forecasts given by analysts and economists are quite contradictory, which is natural in modern realities. For some indicators, the spread of indicatorsisso huge that it is even difficult to imagine what awaits Russia and the country’s economic security. In this article, we consider the economic security indicators of the Russian Federation forthe past 2021, forecastsforthe end of 2022, as well as planned indicators for 2023—2025. After reviewing the current and planned indicators, we give our assessment and vision of the situation, as well as our conclusions based on these forecasts. Thus, despite all the pressure exerted on the Russian Federation by Western countries and the EU as a whole, Russia istrying to do everything to maintain a high level of economic security, finding ways out of seemingly hopeless situations.