Prognostication of integral innovative security indicator for economic information

The article substantiates that the main stage while evaluating both the separate constituent and the entire economic security of the enterprise is to evaluate the time, which makes the enterprise lag behind with ensuring this security component and general desired level of economic security. It is determined that the time itself is not the mechanism for manifestation of regularities and tendencies, however, it accumulates the actions of the principal factors and expresses them through the trend levelling. The author accepts the suggestion that the influence of all the main factors can be shown on the time basis. The enterprise’s economic security is represented by the hierarchic structure, on the lowest levels of which its separate constituents are found, and the latter ones integrating establish other economic security types that are found on the highest levels of the hierarchy. In the situations, when the enterprise does not lag behind with ensuring a definite security level (evaluated through the determined planned and normative values of fixed security indicators), then the time deficit equals to zero. Consequently, it is proposed to evaluate the time stock for reaching a definite level by the economic security (the time for ensuring both the separate security constituents and the entire economic security as a whole). It is proposed to determine the general time by the amount of time necessary for reaching the determined values (standards, plans, etc.) by separate indicators of economic security and its constituents. It is described that when parallel ensuring the various constituents of economic security happens, then the searched time value will make not an amount, but the maximum from its corresponding values, necessary for the mentioned ensuring. The author determines that during the integration of the obtained time indices it is reasonable to apply two approaches in order to evaluate those economic security types, which are on the highest levels of its hierarchic structure. According to the first approach, it is proposed to determine the time indices on the basis of using the functions of trends, which characterize the actual internal tendencies of the processes analyzed, by time, their external manifestations obtained taking into consideration the corresponding coefficients of weight. In accordance with the second approach, the article proposes to use the time periods determined on the basis of prediction. It is proposed for the first time to determine the speed of changing indices – indicators of economic security.

The purpose of the article is to develop a methodological approach towards assessing the economic security of institutions of higher education. Methodology. There has been generalized the experience of foreign universities in terms of providing high standards of educational and research process in the context of ensuring their economic security in modern conditions. The study has been conducted on the comparison of aggregate indicators of the economic security of HEIs based on the results of factor analysis (the method of the main components). The output data are formed taking into account the main approaches to constructing a balanced system of indicators based on the results of cluster analysis. The integral indicators of economic security of HEIs and integral indicators of economic security in general have been calculated based on the values of factor loadings and weighting coefficients of indicators for each group. Results. The system of performance indicators of the world leading universities has been formed and the key factors of economic security of foreign universities have been identified taking into account the generalized experience of foreign universities. The developed methodological approach to the assessment is universal and provides opportunities for developing measures to improve the level of economic security of institutions of higher education. Studies have shown that the economic security of economic entities is not least determined by the management efficiency of intellectual resources. Practical implications. The calculated level of HEI economic security is an indicator not only for protecting it from threats but also for the causal link between socio-economic development of the state, its economic potential and the level of higher education. Value/originality. The holistic scientific and practical study has been carried out in the article taking into account the interconnection of higher education and economic security of institutions of higher education and a methodical approach to the evaluation of the economic security of HEIs has been developed. The above stipulates the necessity of developing a methodological approach to assessing the risks to the economic security of institutions of higher education on the basis of possible threats to their activities.

The article focuses on the need to balance the interests of efficiency and security 
 of the external economic activity of the Astrakhan region in terms of fierce international competi-tion. The importance of studying the external economic activity of the region is explained by the strategic importance of a borderline geopolitical position of the region. There have been formulated the hypotheses about the positive and negative statistical dependence between socio-economic factors of the region development and resulting figures of external trade of the region; the correlation coefficients between them are defined and interpreted. On the basis of correlation and regression analysis, a statistically significant relationship between the factors of external economic activity and of economic security of the Astrakhan region has been established. There are considered four stages of correlation and regression analysis of the external economic activity in ensuring the economic security of the region: determining the dependence of foreign trade on indicators of economic security in the Astrakhan region; determining the relationship between the volume of exports and indicators of economic security of the region; determining the dependence of the volume of imports on indicators of economic security of the region; determining the relationship between the trade balance and the economic security indicators of the Astrakhan region. The results of the correlation analysis are verified and confirmed by means of the determination coefficient, the value of Fisher F-curve, Student t-test and the standard error indicator. As a result, it has been proposed to use the industrial production index as an indicator of the state of efficiency and security of external economic activity of the region. Correlation and regression analysis was performed using Excel spreadsheets, graphical interpretations of the regression analysis are presented, the result matrix 
 of the regression analysis of the trade balance of the Astrakhan region is presented.

Despite vast research has been carried out and a great number of approaches are available to assess the economic security of enterprises, currently a range of security-related issues are yet beyond the research agenda, thus triggering a need for their thorough investigation and interpretation, in particular this refers to a contradictedness concept underpinned by the inverse relationship between its level (state) and a management decision which can be effective subject to certain economic indicators. The purpose of this study is to develop theoretical and methodological approaches to assess the enterprise economic security with due regard to management decisions effectiveness. To attain the research objectives, the following research methods have been employed: generalization – to draw conclusions from a primary sources content analysis, analysis and synthesis – to provide deeper understanding of the key research categories along with specifying the economic security indicators. The study suggests an ambivalent approach to the perception of management decisions. Using the example of a decision made as to the implementation of an investment project, it is demonstrated that, in contrast to the existing approaches (in which it is viewed as an anti-crisis measure and a tool to boost the level of economic security), in fact, the project may be effective from the position of enhancing the key economic indicators, however it will fail from the perspective of increasing the level of economic security. In this context, the indicators of the investment project economic efficiency have been updated with a focus towards enhancing the enterprise economic security. The study presents an algorithm to test the investment feasibility together with evaluating its impact on the level and the state of the enterprise economic security. The authors also provide a classification of effects from management decisions aimed at increasing the level of economic security. In addition to the above, a chain modeling algorithm is proposed to assess the state of economic security taking into account the rate of change in reaching by security indicators (and its individual elements) their liminal values. The use of this algorithm allows to predict the effects of multiple alternatives in management decision-making on the state of the enterprise economic security. An improved brute force methodological approach applied to investing in processes (projects) to ensure the enterprise economic security provides for a more balanced approach when making appropriate management decisions. The proposals made have important practical implications since they expand the management analytics capabilities and allow to consider the effects from management decisions on the enterprise economic security.

The article considers the main approaches of the theory of economic security. The concepts of "ensuring economic security", "managing economic security", "regulating the economic security of the region" are studied. The impacts affecting the adaptive readiness of the regional economic security complex, reflected in the concepts of "threat", "risk", "factor", "challenge" are noted. The expediency of a multi-vector approach to the organization of regulatory impacts of state and municipal government bodies aimed at ensuring the economic security of the country's regions in the context of overcoming modern threats is determined. A thesis is formulated about the place of regulation of regional economic security as an integral link between the systemic federal level of national security and heterogeneous regions of the country. Using the example of Perm Krai, the dynamics of the main indicators of regional economic security and their relationship with similar indicators of the Volga Federal District and the Russian Federation are considered, and an assessment of existing trends is carried out. The analysis of the elaboration of regulatory and legal documents of the Perm Territory using the extrapolation method of processing official statistics information has established the insufficiency of the measures taken to improve strategic planning in the region in the context of taking into account changing factors and conditions of the external environment. Significant deviations of the achieved results in ensuring the economic security of the Perm Territory from the forecast values approved by the strategic planning documents have been revealed, in particular in achieving the planned indicators in the areas of industrial and environmental safety of the region. It is proposed to revise the content of regulatory documents with the corresponding budget and resource content for the timely adaptation of the region to modern threats and challenges. It is recommended to pay special attention to such areas of economic security of the Perm Territory as: technological sovereignty, investment security and environmental protection.

Due to a number of external uncontrolled factors of negative influence, Ukrainian business entities functioning in the hospitality and tourism business have seen the most severe crisis and depression over the past three years. In order to survive in such conditions and develop the business intensively, Ukrainian business entities must clearly define internal problematic aspects to correct them promptly, as well as the potential opportunities towards which the maximum effort should be directed. The article offers and justifies an approach to assessing the financial and economic security of hospitality and tourism business entities in the complex modern conditions under which the Ukrainian economy is developing. In order to achieve the research goal, the methods of systematization, grouping, and logical generalization were applied.The article systematizes the key aspects of ensuring the financial and economic security for the company's activities that should be followed by its management, describes the structure of an enterprise's financial and economic security, and formulates the concept of financial and economic security for business entities in hospitality and tourism. The paper also specifies the sequence of stages, which would be advisable to follow when managing the financial and economic security of hospitality and tourism enterprises. The authors have summarized the approaches to assessing an enterprise's financial and economic security in modern literature and have grouped the indicators of financial and economic security for hospitality and tourism business enterprises. The study analyzes the dynamics of financial indicators which comprehensively characterize the functioning of temporary accommodation and catering enterprises, as well as economic operators of tourist activity in Ukraine and offers an approach to assessing the financial and economic security of hospitality and tourism business enterprises which base their activities on the innovation potential. The results of the study prove that differentiating and operating the components of hospitality and tourism business operators' innovation potential is expedient and improves their financial and economic security.The practical significance of the obtained results lies in increasing the financial and economic security and innovativeness of hospitality and tourism business enterprises in Ukraine by applying the proposed approach to evaluation as a monitoring tool.

Issues of national security are of particular scientific interest because without it. It is impossible to imagine the existence of any state. Protecting the economic and social interests of the population has long been one of the prerogatives of public policy, which has expanded to information security of the people in the face of rapid digitalization of all spheres of life and the introduction of information attack as a new form of weapon. In this context, it is essential to conduct a thorough study of primary scientific papers on economic, social and information security. In this work, it is proposed to use quantitative and qualitative bibliometric analysis methods, which allows to identify the main trends and form a basis for further research. The information basis for this work was the international scientometric database Scopus and SciVal by Elsevier, which allows you to analyze bibliographic data using built-in tools and import them for external use in the software VOSviewer. Bibliographic information is presented from the 1930s to June 2021. The results show that in the world, the most researched is the topic of first, social, second, information, and third, economic security. At the same time, these studies are interdisciplinary, mainly at the intersection of economic and social sciences and information security at the intersection of economic and mathematical, computer sciences. The analysis of time trends changes the number of scientific papers on economic, social and information security in Scopus database shows their gradual growth. In contrast, information security has the fastest growth rate. The study of geographical trends shows that economic security research occurs mainly in the United States, the Russian Federation and Ukraine (the funding of research confirms this at the expense of the relevant ministries and foundations). Social security is mostly studied in English-speaking and European countries (United States, United Kingdom, Germany). Information security research is concentrated in English-speaking (United States, United Kingdom) and China, India. The qualitative bibliographic analysis allowed to analyze the most cited, and hence the trend works on selected topics, confirming the multidisciplinary nature of the work. In addition, a cluster analysis of co-occurrence of keywords was coducted, which formed clusters devoted to social, economic, socio-psychological, legal and other issues.

В будь-якій країні обсяг оборонних витрат залежить від рівня воєнної та економічної безпеки держави. Тобто, щоб адекватно відреагувати на зміни стану воєнно-економічної безпеки країни необхідно оцінити її рівень з урахуванням ресурсних можливостей держави на час оцінювання, та тільки після цього приймати рішення щодо частки збільшення, або зменшення оборонних витрат країни. Побудова шкали оцінювання рівня воєнно-економічної безпеки, яка дозволяє дослідити чутливість отриманої оцінки рівня воєнно-економічної безпеки держави до зміни вхідних даних та підвищити стабільність прийнятих рішень за цією оцінкою є актуальним та необхідним завданням сьогодення. В статті шкалу оцінювання рівня воєнно-економічної безпеки пропонується задавати на основі нечітко-множинної математичної моделі. Використання нечітко-множинної математичної моделі для побудови шкали оцінювання рівня воєнно-економічної безпеки, надасть можливість оперувати частковими нечіткими показниками оцінок за складовими показників ресурсного забезпечення воєнно-економічної безпеки держави з метою можливості дослідження питань аналізу чутливості отриманої оцінки рівня воєнно-економічної безпеки держави до зміни вхідних даних та підвищення стабільності прийнятих рішень відповідно до цієї оцінки.

The article analyzes the state of economic security of domestic enterprises under martial law, identifies the main threats to their activity, outlines the main direct and indirect consequences of the influence of active hostilities on ensuring the economic security of economic entities. The need to change approaches to ensuring their effective functioning is determined, namely the expediency of using a compliance approach at industrial enterprises regarding the functioning of achieving sustainable development of an industrial enterprise, achieving a system of goals (social, economic, environmental, etc.) is substantiated. It was established that profit, as the ultimate goal of activity, loses its priority value. It becomes only one of the economic goals and fulfills the functional task of a means of achieving the system of enterprise goals. Not only traditional components (economic, social, environmental), but also indicators of economic security become important during the reconstruction and transformation of the development of the enterprise. A possible approach to the identification of a security component is to take into account an important factor - compliance-security, the use of which at the enterprise level determines the protection of its vital interests from external and internal violations of regulatory legal acts, standards, founding and internal documents of the enterprise by means of identification, assessment and maximum reduction (elimination) of compliance destroyers.

The relevance of the study is due to the increasing role of artificial intelligence (AI) in ensuring the economic security of the banking sector against the background of digital transformation and growing volatility of global financial markets. The analysis of the impact of AI-technologies on the value of financial organizations is of particular importance, which allows to identify optimal strategies for their implementation. The purpose of the study is to assess the effectiveness of AI solutions in bank management on the example of China Construction Bank and to determine their impact on the indicators of economic security and market value of the bank. The methodological framework includes a comprehensive quantitative and qualitative analysis of key performance indicators for the period 2016-2024, comparative assessment of four basic sectors: competitiveness, liquidity, management efficiency and additional indicators. The main results show that the systematic implementation of AI algorithms allowed the bank to significantly improve operational efficiency through real-time tracking of external environment changes, monitoring of financial indicators and forecasting of development scenarios. This ensured sustainable growth in the bank’s market value even in the face of pandemic and geopolitical instability. Scientific novelty consists in the confirmation of the hypothesis of positive correlation between the level of technological equipment of the bank and its value, as well as in the development of a methodology for assessing the effectiveness of AI solutions. The practical significance of the research consists in the possibility of using the obtained data to improve the economic risk management system in the banking sector. The results can be applied by other financial organizations in the development of digital transformation strategies. Areas for further research include studying the impact of different types of AI solutions on certain aspects of banking activities, as well as assessing the long-term effects of their implementation. It is recommended to expand the geography of the study to include other large banks.

The article studies the state of the standard of living indicators of the Primorsky Krai population and their impact on the indicators of socio-economic security. The analysis is carried out using the data and methodology of state statistics bodies used in statistical observations of the standard of living of the population; the Methodological Provisions for the calculation of monetary income and monetary expenses indicators approved by the State Statistics Committee. The dynamics of average per capita, real, and median monetary incomes of the Primorsky Krai, the Far Eastern Federal District, and Russia were compared; the composition and structure of monetary expenses and incomes, changes in savings of the Primorsky Krai population, the ratio of nominal and real wages and consumer price index in dynamics, the distribution of residents by the size of average per capita income, income inequality and differentiation, and poverty level were analyzed. It is concluded that the state of the standard of living is generally favorable, reflecting regional and national trends. There was an increase in nominal and real monetary income, the share of citizens with higher incomes increased, and the poverty rate was decreasing and was within the state target values. At the same time, there was instability in the indicators: real monetary income grew slower than nominal income and, in some periods, declined; the median income was lower than the average per capita income; and the growth of inflation in recent years has led to a significant gap between nominal and real wages. There is a significant gap between the incomes of the rich and the poor, inequality in income distribution. The correlation between the standard of living indicators and the indicator of economic security is analyzed. The model of pair correlation describing the dependence of the funds coefficient on the Gini coefficient was formed, which can be used in forecasting for the future to fulfill the tasks of minimizing the threats set in the Presidential Decrees.

In the modern conditions of the world economy, the structural components of economic security can be considered at different levels of the hierarchy of relations, in particular: 1.The global level, where the key factors affecting the economic security of the world economy are determined.This includes international agreements, economic relations between countries, international organizations and other global instruments affecting the state of economic, information and ecological security.2. Regional level, where specific aspects of economic, information and ecological security are considered in individual regions or a group of countries.Regional agreements, trade blocs, energy cooperation, economic integration and other regional initiatives are key components of economic security at this level.3. National levelcomponents of economic, information and ecological security that reflect the policies and strategies of a specific country.This includes internal reforms, the level of economic stability, foreign trade policy and other internal aspects affecting the economic security of the country.4. Sectoral levelreflects economic, information and ecological security in specific sectors such as finance, energy, information technology, and other industries that may be critical to overall economic, information and ecological security.Depending on the level of the hierarchy, these components interact with each other and affect the general state of economic, information and ecological security at different levels of the global economy.

During the last two decades The Russian Federation experienced a serious external pressure on the part of western countries, including the impact of unfair competition on global commodity markets and sectional costs. At the same time global geo-political space is undergoing changes too. Principle risks and threats to national and regional economic security, which kept arising in the previous years in many regions of the country, are becoming the most topical. Our home market demonstrates different dynamics of its development, which is characterized by low economic growth, regional disproportions in social and economic development, shortage of investment. Positive indicators include relative sustainability of economy, surplus of regional budgets, success of certain entities of the country in attaining strategic goals, a high level of openness of Federation entities’ economy. In this context identification of key risks and threats to regional economic security acquires special importance, designing approaches to their minimization and elimination is also essential. Unfortunately, there is no universal approach to their elimination in the global practice, however, it is possible to lower their impact on social and economic sphere. The authors analyzed a number of key factors influencing economic security in regions. Two large macro-regions of Russia, i. e. the Central and the Privolzhskiy Federal districts were investigated. Using their example entities, which are included in these districts, were typified by dynamics of certain indicators. It showed serious differentiation, the trends of investment shortage dominates in the majority of regions. In both districts, mentioned above the share of investment into fixed capital in gross regional product and returns on assets ratio decreased. Only the Kaluga region as an entity of the Central Federal district shows positive dynamics. Specific weight of shipped innovation products in the total volume of industrial output (indicator) demonstrates the level of economic security of the area in view of its competitiveness. The authors showed that the number of regions with growing dynamics of innovation products output is prevailing. Disproportions in key indicators of regional economic security were found. Positive factors of its growth, such as availability of serious potential of innovation economy development were identified.

The article reveals the essence of the process of digitalization of the Ukrainian economy in the conditions of increasing external threats associated with the formation of an open economic system and deep transformational ties in global economic relations. Economic relations in the intellectual sphere, related to the innovative activities of Ukrainian enterprises, are the subject of attention of both international transatlantic enterprises and state structures, which are associated with a weakening of the competitiveness of state-owned and export-oriented enterprises and ultimately limit the independence and autonomy of the state. In this context, the importance of financial and economic security and the formation of fundamentally new systems for the protection of intellectual resources of Ukrainian companies and limiting the influence of the country’s companies on modern information, telecommunications and modernization communication systems, which can be the object of information attacks and threats to the production infrastructure, is rapidly growing. Financial and economic security strategies are defined, which are calculated for a long time and are necessary for an effective financial management system, which is able to ensure a compromise between the interests of the development of the enterprise, the availability of a sufficient level of cash and ensuring the solvency of the enterprise. Considered possible threats and a number of destabilizing factors associated with unfair competition and violation of norms, principles and laws that underlie the market economic system. On the basis of the proposed indicators of financial and economic security of production economic systems, a model of financial and economic security of enterprises has been developed, the essence of such a model is the ability to identify, monitor and calculate possible threats and establish the degree of critical security for enterprises as separate types of threats and determine the complex effect of identified threats on the possibility of creating a state of crisis and destroying the economic system of enterprises.

The relevance of the study is associated with the importance of import substitution development in Russia. The chapter examines the dynamics of dependence on foreign goods, services and technologies in various industries, the dynamics of industrial production development, and the introduction of advanced production technologies, the dynamics of import quotas and commodity structure of imports. The authors shows the dependence of Russian industrial enterprises on the main categories of imports, suggests ways to ensure the economic security of regions during the implementation of import substitution programs, and indicators for assessing the impact of import substitution processes on Russia's economic security. A conclusion is made about the need to supplement the list of indicators of Russia's economic security with indicators of import substitution effectiveness.