Assisted Colonization and Rapid Climate Change

Abrupt Change in Climate and Biotic Systems.

The Korea Meteorological Agency (KMA) has monitored flowering dates over the past 100 years for seven economically important woody plant species. This unique dataset is perfect for understanding whether historical patterns of phenological plasticity are breaking down in the face of recent and rapid climate change. Here we show that a scientist armed only 50 years into this study would have been able to predict the phenological shifts of the last 50 years with a high degree of accuracy. This is despite record-breaking warm temperatures and unprecedented early flowering, suggesting consistency in phenological shifts over time. Shifts in the timing of spring flowering events are recognized as one of the clearest and most sensitive ecological indicators of climate change 1 . Numerous efforts are under way to track yearly variation in flowering phenology 2,3 , but most ongoing studies began in the last few decades and so lack data on phenology before the onset of anthropogenic climate change. Such studies typically calculate phenological sensitivity as the linear relationship between flowering time and temperature, but there is emerging uncertainty as to whether plants may be reaching the limit of their ability to track temperature 4, 5 . If they are reaching this limit, we would expect to see either non-linearities (e.g., asymptotes) in phenological sensitivity 6 , or increased variability (or a lack of predictability) in comparison with what were once tight, strong relationships 7 . Indeed, some have suggested that drivers such as winter chilling and photoperiod will become more prominent in cueing flowering as spring temperatures become less limiting 8 . To gain an understanding of whether climate change is resulting in different patterns of phenological response, we need to compare recent shifts to historical baseline data from before the onset of rapid anthropogenic climate change. .

The potential impact of global climate change on the distribution of bird species can be predicted based on observed climate change and current knowledge of the factors affecting range boundaries. The concept of an ecological niche allows one to qualitatively and quantitatively characterise the impact of environmental factors on species. The study estimates the parameters of the thermal projection of the ecological niche of birds in Zhytomyr region, compares different approaches to modelling the response of species to the average annual temperature gradient, identifies ecological groups of birds based on their thermal gradient, and provides prospects for these ecological groups in the context of global climate change. The beta-function was found to reflect the reactions of different species within a single bell-shaped pattern across the entire gradient of the environmental factor. This makes it possible to estimate the optimal level for all bird species. Kurtosis can be used to distinguish between different response patterns within the beta model. Zero kurtosis indicates a symmetrical bell-shaped response. The relationship between the kurtosis of species response models and the optimum is complex. In general, species show negative kurtosis in the warm part of the range, indicating a sharp break in the species response curve in the warm part of the factor range. In the middle part of the factor range, the kurtosis value randomly fluctuates around zero, indicating a predominant tendency towards symmetrical response forms and the prevalence of the classical bell-shaped response model. The limits of variation of kurtosis are of great importance in the cold part of the range. The thermal projection of the ecological niche was used to divide bird species into ecological groups based on the position of the optimum zone and the width of the tolerance amplitude. It is shown that ecological groups differ in their prospects under global climate change. Stenotopic megatherms have the best prospects in the face of global climate change. The habitat conditions of all other bird species in the region will deteriorate over the next 70 years. The most threatening prospects should be expected for stenotopic microtherms. The stenotopic megatherms include 68 species, which is 25.9% of the total regional bird fauna. That is, global climate change poses a threat to 74.1% of the region's bird species. Stenotopic megatherms are typified by Anseriformes, Bucerotiformes, Gruiformes, and Pelecaniformes. It was predicted that Ciconia ciconia has the greatest prospects for expansion due to global climate change. The stenotopic microtherms are represented by 18 species, which is 6.9% of the regional avifauna. For these species, climatic conditions will significantly limit the number of favourable habitats. This ecological group is most strongly typified by for Galliformes, Piciformes, and Strigiformes. Climate change will lead to a shift in the range of Picus canus, which will reduce the abundance of this species in the region.

This paper explains about culture of local wisdom of Kampung Kuta and the indigenous community for a long time ago, which is facing adaptive climate changes in Ciamis Regency, West Java. Local wisdom has a strategic role to give a contribution in adding an insight and environmental knowledge, in case facing climate changes. A set of problems that can be examined in this research study covers : Identification kind of relevant local wisdom to face climate changes, the role of local wisdom in facing climate changes, adaptation pattern of community in facing climate changes. The research method that is used is a qualitative methods and the ethnography approach. The source of data in the research and information are obtained directly by an informant as oral data about the different forms of local wisdom and data about various cultural events. Data has been analyzed and examined validating using triangulation technique to collect and source data. Based on analysis that have been done indicates that local wisdom values in Kampung Kuta has some character, those are very selective, well mannered, give priority to harmony, future oriented. Form of that local wisdom is integrated in knowledge, conviction, understanding or insight, custom and ethic. The form of local wisdom that relevant in facing climate changes can be seen by its instilling principles to love the environment, caring and maintaining the environment, overseeing and conserving the environment. The role of local wisdom values of Kampung Kuta community in facing climate changes in utilizing natural resourches, applying taboo in conserving the forest, applying taboo in daily activity. Integration pattern of local wisdom values of Kampung Kuta community on practicing cultural adaptation to face climate changes is implement traditional ceremonies, build house.

Most organisms face similar problems with respect to their conservation in the face of global climate change. Here, we examine probable effects of climate change on the hyperdiverse plant family Orchidaceae. In the 20th century, the major concerns for orchid conservation revolved around unsustainable harvest for the orchid trade and, more importantly, land conversion from natural ecosystems to those unable to support wild orchid populations. Land conversion included logging, fire regimes and forest conversions to agricultural systems. Although those forms of degradation continue, an additional suite of threats has emerged, fueled by global climate change. Global climate change involves more than responses of orchid populations to increases in ambient temperature. Increasing temperature induces secondary effects that can be more significant than simple changes in temperature. Among these new threats are extended and prolonged fire seasons, rising sea levels, increases in cyclonic storms, seasonal climate shifts, changes in orthographic wind dew point and increased drought. The long-term outlook for orchid biodiversity in the wild is dismal, as it is for many animal groups, and we need to start rethinking strategies for conservation in a rapidly changing world.

The International Union for the Conservation of Nature (IUCN) Red List has led efforts to monitor and conserve populations of animals, plants, and fungi since 1964. However, recent research suggests the list is not effectively accounting for the consequences of rapid man-made climate change. The Korean Water Deer (Hydropotes inermis argyropus) is classified as vulnerable internationally, but in South Korea it is widely considered a pest, with the government offering bounties to cull what are considered high numbers. Both the IUCN’s classification and the Korean government’s approach to Korean Water Deer fail to consider the possibility of a rapid decline in numbers due to rapidly spreading biosecurity threats facilitated by rapid climate change. This paper describes the current status of Korean Water Deer, the biosecurity threats the population faces, and potential solutions to protect the population. This case study of Korean Water Deer will also add to evidence that the IUCN’s classification system is failing to accurately describe the potential for rapid collapse of mammal populations due to biosecurity threats facilitated by climate change.

Sustainable Aquaculture Futures

Populations with little genetic variation are more vulnerable to the arrival of new pests or diseases, pollution, changes of climate and habitat destruction or other catastrophic events. Biological diversity is the best tool to counter environmental changes and combat climate change in uncertain future. Spatial isolation, fragmentation, increased in-breeding, low fruit set in disturbed natural forests necessitates more population sizes to generate enough variability through mutation and recombination's. Planting a diverse array of species and seed sources is a hedge in the face of global climate change. The best plantation strategy is to maintain diversity, breed for generalists, and deploy intimate mixtures of seed sources or progeny-tested families. Flowering time and seed maturation in plants could be altered in the scenario of climate change; so, should be understood and taken care off. In the era of climate change, conservation of forest genetic resources and their management is necessary to maintain required biodiversity to combat climate change. Seed banking is also a tool in combating the loss of global plant diversity.

This study reviews the various conservation strategies applied to the four redwood species, namely coast redwood (Sequoia sempervirens), Sierra redwood or giant sequoia (Sequoiadendron giganteum), dawn redwood (Metasequoia glyptostroboides) and South American redwood or alerce (Fitzroya cupressoides), which are endemic in the USA, China and South America, respectively. All four redwood genera belong to the familyCupressaceae; they are monospecific, share a number of common phenotypic traits, including red wood, and are threatened in their native ranges due to human activity and a changing climate. Therefore, the management objective should be to conserve representative populations of the native species with as much genetic diversity as possible for their future survival. Those representative populations exhibiting relatively high levels of genetic diversity should be selected for germplasm preservation and monitored during the conservation phase by using molecular markers.In situandex situstrategies for the preservation of germplasm of the redwoods are discussed in this study. A holisticin situgene conservation strategy calls for the regeneration of a large number of diverse redwood genotypes that exhibit adequate levels of neutral and adaptive genetic variability, by generative and vegetative methods for their preservation and maintenance in their endemic locations. At the same time, it would be desirable to conserve the redwoods in newex situreserves, away from their endemic locations with similar as well as different environmental conditions for testing their growth and survival capacities. In addition, otherex situstrategies involving biotechnological approaches for preservation of seeds, tissues, pollen and DNA in genebanks should also be fully exploited in the face of global climate change.

We investigated the deep-sea fossil record of benthic ostracodes during periods of rapid climate and oceanographic change over the past 20,000 years in a core from intermediate depth in the northwestern Atlantic. Results show that deep-sea benthic community "collapses" occur with faunal turnover of up to 50% during major climatically driven oceanographic changes. Species diversity as measured by the Shannon-Wiener index falls from 3 to as low as 1.6 during these events. Major disruptions in the benthic communities commenced with Heinrich Event 1, the Inter-Allerød Cold Period (IACP: 13.1 ka), the Younger Dryas (YD: 12.9-11.5 ka), and several Holocene Bond events when changes in deep-water circulation occurred. The largest collapse is associated with the YD/IACP and is characterized by an abrupt two-step decrease in both the upper North Atlantic Deep Water assemblage and species diversity at 13.1 ka and at 12.2 ka. The ostracode fauna at this site did not fully recover until approximately 8 ka, with the establishment of Labrador Sea Water ventilation. Ecologically opportunistic slope species prospered during this community collapse. Other abrupt community collapses during the past 20 ka generally correspond to millennial climate events. These results indicate that deep-sea ecosystems are not immune to the effects of rapid climate changes occurring over centuries or less.

Limited seed dispersal distance in endemic species from tropical mountaintop grasslands may restrict upward migration in response to climate change

We review the literature on the performance of groundwater institutions, including command-and-control (CAC) approaches, market-based institutions (MBIs), and voluntary approaches, and evaluate how they will perform as agriculture adapts to climate change. Both CAC approaches and MBIs lead to uneven distributional impacts on farmers, and voluntary approaches have not been successful in reducing water withdrawal on a large scale. A polycentric approach of regulation plus local management might perform well. Climate change will increase the irrigation demand for groundwater and demand flexible and properly scoped institutions that attend to local conditions.

Climate is changing at an alarming rate, imposing significant negative impacts on the quantity and nutritional quality of the economical crop yield. Overreliance on staple cereals that demand high inputs has ecological, economic, and nutritional risks. Nutritional profiles of major food crops are being degraded under changing climate and the global micronutrient malnutrition called `hidden hunger` causes severe health impacts on developing countries in the world. Elevated atmospheric temperature and CO2 concentration have reduced iron (Fe) and zinc (Zn) levels of major food crops, thus, leading to dietary deficiencies of these micronutrients, constituting a major public health concern. Food legumes, which are highly suitable crops in the low-input farming systems, are a well-known source of Fe and Zn. Further, low-input farming systems have been reported as an integral component in climate-resilient food systems. Efficient use of existing genetic diversity of food legumes could improve the nutritional output of cropping systems, thereby sustaining human Fe and Zn nutrition in the face of global climate change. This review explores and describes the underexploited potentials of food legumes to be used as an integral component in low-input food-production systems adapted to climate change to combat micronutrient malnutrition, particularly focusing on Fe and Zn, which are of significant concern as key drivers of global micronutrient malnutrition.

Large, abrupt, and widespread climate changes with major impacts have occurred repeatedly in the past, when the Earth system was forced across thresholds. Although abrupt climate changes can occur for many reasons, it is conceivable that human forcing of climate change is increasing the probability of large, abrupt events. Were such an event to recur, the economic and ecological impacts could be large and potentially serious. Unpredictability exhibited near climate thresholds in simple models shows that some uncertainty will always be associated with projections. In light of these uncertainties, policy-makers should consider expanding research into abrupt climate change, improving monitoring systems, and taking actions designed to enhance the adaptability and resilience of ecosystems and economies.

Introduction The field of integrated assessment of climate change is undergoing a paradigm shift towards the analysis of potentially abrupt and irreversible climate changes (Alley et al ., 2003; Keller et al ., 2007). Early integrated studies broke important new ground in exploring the relationship between the costs and benefits of reducing carbon dioxide (CO 2 ) emissions (e.g., Nordhaus, 1991; Manne and Richels, 1991; or Tol, 1997). These studies project the climate response to anthropogenic CO 2 emissions to be relatively smooth and typically conclude that the projected benefits of reducing CO 2 emissions would justify only small reductions in CO 2 emissions in a cost–benefit framework. The validity of the often- assumed smooth climate response is, however, questionable, given how the climate system has responded to forcing in the geological past. Before the Anthropocene, the geological time period where humans have started to influence the global biogeochemical cycles considerably (Crutzen, 2002), the predominant responses of the climate system were forced by small changes in solar insolation occurring on timescales of thousands of years (Berger and Loutre, 1991). Yet this slow and smooth forcing apparently triggered abrupt climate changes – a threshold response where the climate system moved between different basins of attraction (Berger, 1990; Clement et al ., 2001). Anthropogenic forcing may trigger climate threshold responses in the future (Alley et al ., 2003; Keller et al ., 2007).