Path dependence in intrastate conflicts: Resources, regimes, and interventions

Modelling life trajectories and mode choice using Bayesian belief networks

How UNreliable are adult-reported suicide attempts? An examination of correlates and underlying causal mechanisms of discordant reporting over time. Niki P. Palmetto, MPhil, MPH The challenge of capturing suicide attempts in the population, plague its examination. The reliability of adult-reported lifetime suicide attempts had not been rigorously explored prior to this work, and therefore estimates have remained largely unchallenged. This dissertation explicitly sought to fill this research gap by utilizing a longitudinal study, comprising two waves of data collection, in which information on suicide attempts was obtained at both time points. Chapter 1 presents a systematic review of the literature depicting the state of the literature with regards to the reliability of suicidality measures (e.g. ideation, plans, and attempts). Few studies assessed correlates of discordant reporting, and no studies examined the reliability of adultreported suicide attempts. Drawing upon the correlates reported within studies, as well sources of heterogeneity across studies, I posited four plausible causal mechanisms underlying discordant suicidality reporting; recall failure, reinterpretation, conscious denial, and lack of construct comprehension. Extending these findings, I proposed that the likelihood of each mechanism is influenced by factors such as the severity of the suicidality, amount of time passed since the suicidal event, social desirability effects, mood context, and suicide construct validity. In Chapter 2, I assessed the reliability of adult-reported lifetime attempts as reported in a large, population-based longitudinal study, and found reports to be moderately reliable, with a Kappa coefficient of 0.51. I hypothesized that discordant reporters would be more similar to individuals who reported a past attempt at both waves (Concordant yes responders), compared with individuals who reported no attempt at both waves (Concordant no responders). I found that indeed, discordant reporters were more similar to the former, potentially signifying that discordant reporters are true attempters who underreported their attempt at one time point. Further, I hypothesized that discordant reporters would be less likely to have a history of depressive disorders compared with Concordant yes responders; positing that this history would serve as a marker for attempt severity, and that discordants would have less severe attempts, which would therefore be more easily forgotten or reinterpreted. Contrary to this hypothesis however, discordants were as likely as Concordant yes individuals to have a history of depressive disorders, and unexpectedly, discordants were much less likely to have a history of suicidal ideation. It is therefore plausible that a history of suicidal ideation serves as a marker for attempt severity, and/or that discordant reporters are characterized by more impulsive attempts. In Chapter 3, I examined how a respondent’s current depressed mood may influence the recall, and hence reporting of attempts. Based on established mood-recall theories, I tested three competing hypotheses to determine if a current depressed mood would enhance (moodcongruent recall), inhibit (mood memory deficit effect), or have no effect on the recall (moodindependent recall) and reporting of attempts. I hypothesized that discordant reporters would demonstrate a mood-congruent pattern of reporting, such that a depressed mood at the time of the interview would increase the likelihood that a respondent would report an attempt at that wave. There were in fact, distinct mood-congruent reporting effects among Recanters, yet moodindependent effects detected among New endorsers. This may indicate that New endorsers are a unique group of discordant responders, which warrant further examination. Still, because respondents in our sample were over 20 times more likely to recant than newly endorse, and comparatively, there was limited power within our New endorser group, I believe these results may be generalized to assert that overall, discordant responders report in a mood-congruent

Heavy rainfall events often occurred in Palangka Raya, Central Kalimantan. Palangka Raya Meteorological Station recorded the accumulation of rainfall on June, 4rd 2016 was recorded 296 mm, that exceeds BMKG’s threshold about intensity of extreme condition, it more than 50 mm/days. This extreme rainfall events will be respectively simulated by using 20 combination schemes parameterization between cumulus convective-microphysics-PBL. Regarding the various physics condition of the atmosphere in the tropical area, this study using Weather Research and Forecasting-Advanced Research WRF (WRF-ARW) model to determine the atmosphere condition during that extreme rainfall events. The analysis of this event using Global Forecast System (GFS) data from NCEP-NOAA with temporal resolution 3 hours. The verification of simulated rainfall showed that parameterization scheme of BMJ-Lin-MYJ has relatively good verification value to represent the extreme rainfall events. The result of verification based on value of hits and success ration in every single of schemes per each threshold. In addition to the output of the chosen scheme, it is known that the atmosphere condition above Palangka Raya area is wet enough that shown by the height of the air moistness in each layer and also there is convergence which supported the growth of convective clouds during the extreme rainfall events.

The development of the business in this world it’s so fast, in the field of trade and manufacturing. Trading businesses carry out their activitiesby buying products and selling them back to consumers. Every business that is estabilshed is motivated by various factors, which is the deman or interest of the communtiy towards the products produced by a business to fulfill their needs. Each company needs to know the Break Event point level of each company, including companies engaged in the chicken husbandry sector that produce laying hens like UD. Kakaskasen Indah. Break Even Point is a condition in which the company operations doesn’t mae a profit and also doesn’t have suffer losses. The purpose of this study is (1) to knowing the cost elements calculated in the Break Event point component . (2) to know the number of Break Event points in units and Rupiah at UD. Kakaskasen Indah in 2017. (3) to knowing the size of Margin Safety in 2017 so that UD. Kakaskasen Indah does not suffer losses. The results of this study also show that management of this company can find out the level of Break Event Points. The Break Event point level shows minimun sales laying hens that must be achived by UD. Kakaskasen Indah so as not to suffer losses. The method used in this study is descriptive research. The data sought in this study is a report on egg production costs which will be used to dtermine Break Event point. The resilts of this study is cost obtained is very important, researchers also find the amount of profits that will later be obtained by the company, thi is determained by how much the costs incurred or recived by the company. Based on Break Event points calculation in 2017, UD. Kakaskasen Indah achived a Break Event point on egg sales of Rp. 9.949.539,134 or 254.767,98 units. With Safety od Margin 52,82% so the company does not to suffer losses. Keywords:Break Even Point, Cost, Sales, Profit

Patient safety is a global imperative. It has extensive implications for all WHO Member States, for all health-care workers--and for all of us when we become patients. We already know that about 10% of people who receive health care in industrialized countries will suffer because of preventable harm and adverse events (1-5). By 2006 we expect to have a greater understanding of the nature and scale of the problem in developing countries and countries in economic transition. Early indications from a pilot study being carried out suggest that the figure will be significantly higher. Recent WHO data suggest that developing countries account for around 77% of all reported cases of counterfeit or substandard drugs (6). It is also reported that at least half of all medical equipment in many of these countries is unusable or only partly usable, resulting in an increased risk of harm to patients and health workers (7). Adverse events occur in all settings where health care is provided. Most of the current evidence comes from hospitals because risks associated with hospital treatment are higher but many such events occur in other health-care settings such as physicians' offices, nursing homes, pharmacies, community clinics and patients' homes. Every point in the process of caregiving contains an inherent lack of safety. Adverse events may therefore be the result of problems in practice, products, procedures or systems. Current conceptual thinking on the safety of patients places the prime responsibility for adverse events on deficiencies in system design, organization and operation rather than on individual practitioners or products. For those who work on systems, adverse events are shaped and provoked by "upstream" systemic factors, which include the particular organization's strategy, culture, working practices, approach to quality management, risk prevention and capacity for learning from failures. Countermeasures based on changes in the system are, therefore, more productive than those that target the behaviour of individuals and their propensity to commit errors. In 2002 WHO acknowledged that, to tackle patient safety internationally, a comprehensive, multifaceted approach involving cultural change, system development and technical expertise was necessary. The Fifty-fifth World Health Assembly called upon all Member States to take action in relation to patient safety (8), following which WHO established a number of work programmes tackling systemic issues such as taxonomy, estimating hazards and the development of reporting and learning systems. The Organization also brought together its technical experts dealing with the safety of blood, injections, vaccines, drugs and medicines, pregnancy procedures and medical devices so that their individual expertise could be harnessed to find global solutions. …

Practitioners of dreamwork have long understood that exploring dreams has the potential to be a source of insight, but empirical research evidencing this has generally been lacking, especially in non-clinical settings. Additionally, many of the factors that influence dreamwork efficacy remain to be discovered. The present study aimed to provide evidence for the insight-generating potential of dreamwork, and to investigate a potential factor that may influence how effective a dreamwork session is: the level of experience of the dreamer. Participants (29 (15 experienced and 14 inexperienced in dreamwork)) took part in two discussions: a dream discussion and a waking-life event discussion, using the Schredl “Listening to the Dreamer” method of dreamwork and an adapted version of this for discussing waking-life events. Results indicated that dreamwork led to significantly higher levels of Exploration-Insight and Continuity Insight in comparison to a waking-life event discussion. Levels of Personal Insight did not differ between the two conditions, but did not significantly differ from previous experiments’ Personal Insight levels following dream discussion. Experienced and inexperienced participants’ levels of insight were not significantly different. High variability in insight scores indicated that there were large differences between participants in terms of how effective the discussions were for generating insight, but this difference could not be accounted for by experience levels. Insights about changing one’s life correlated with metaphor perception within the dream. These results illustrate the insight-generating potential of dreamwork for some individuals, irrespective of the dreamer’s level of experience, and perhaps suggest that insight for change may come about following perception of metaphors for waking life in the dream.

In this study cognitive therapy based on self-talking technique for reducing the rate of social phobia and factors of interpretation of events related to self and others have been noticed.sample group was 8 women from a 16-person group suffering from social phobia , selected at random from among 27 people referring to counseling clinics.their disorder has been detected by using the instrument of spin diagnosis and DSM-IV.To collect data the inventory of social phobia (SPIN)and the inventory of the interpretation of the events related to self and others were used. The statistical analysis of the data showed that cognitive therapy based on self-talking technique has influenced to reduce the rate of social phobia .the scores of person's social phobia have decreased significantly after the therapy in comparison to the one before the therapy.Although the factors of interpretation of the events related to self and others also have showed changes but these changes statistically were not significant. Keywords: cognitive therapy based on self-talking technique, social phobia, interpretation of events related to self and others.

Self-exciting point processes are widely used to model events occurring in time and space whose rate depends on the past history of the process, such as earthquake<br>aftershocks, crime, and neural spike trains. By modeling the event rate as the sum of a background (or immigrant) process, often an inhomogeneous Poisson process, and<br>an offspring process consisting of events triggered by previous events, self-exciting point process models naturally account for complex clustering behavior. When the<br>model is physically motivated, as are models of earthquake aftershock sequences, model parameters have direct interpretations in terms of the generative mechanism.<br>In this thesis, I focus in particular on the application of self-exciting point processes to crime. Crime rates are known to vary greatly in space within a city, as a result of many demographic and economic factors, and crime often exhibits “nearrepeats,” when one crime is followed by another soon after, either from retaliation or because offenders tend to return to the same areas. Point process models have<br>been used to predict crime, but the available models can be improved: they cannot explicitly account for spatially varying covariates and estimate their effects, and there are no inference tools that could be used to test criminological theories or evaluate interventions. After extensively reviewing the literature on self-exciting point processes, I introduce<br>a new model which accounts for both spatial covariates and self-excitation, and explore its benefits over simple lagged regressions and other commonly used methods. After discussing computational issues in fitting the model, I use simulations to explore methods for parameter inference, review a set of residual diagnostics and animations, and use these diagnostics to explore the model’s behavior under<br>various forms of model misspecification, giving practical advice for the interpretation of model fits. To demonstrate the model’s utility, I then analyze large databases<br>of Pittsburgh and Baltimore crime records, linking crime rates to several relevant spatial covariate and leading indicator events, and comparing several model variations.<br>

ALICE is a dedicated heavy-ion experiment at CERN LHC aiming to study the properties of the quark–gluon plasma. A lead– lead collision might produce several ten thousand new particles. Detailed study of the event requires precise measurements of the particle tracks. A 90 m Time Projection Chamber (TPC) with more than 500 000 read-out pads was built as the main central barrel tracker. Collisions can be recorded at a rate of up to about 1 kHz. The front-end electronics, designed from FPGAs and custom ASICs, performs shaping, amplification, digitisation and digital filtering of the signals. The data is forwarded to DAQ via 216 1.25 Gb/s fibre-optical links. Configuration, control and monitoring is done by an embedded Linux system on the front-end electronics. First results on the performance of the front-end electronics and the distributed detector control system are presented. I. TIME PROJECTION CHAMBER (TPC) The A Large Ion Collider Experiment (ALICE) [1] is using a TPC [2] as the main track-finding detector. A TPC is a gaseous detector. It is shaped like an horizontal barrel and positioned in the same direction as the beam pipe, which is passing through the centre of the barrel. The overall length is 500 cm, divided by a 100 kV Central Electrode (CE) into two identical drift volume. The diameter is 494 cm, though the innermost 170 cm is not part of the TPC to make room for the beam pipe and inner tracking detectors. A schematic view of the TPC can be seen in Figure 1. Collisions will take place in the beam pipe in the centre of the TPC, allowing the particles produced to traverse the TPC and leave tracks of ionised gas along their paths. A strong electric field of from the CE will make the electrons drift towards the end planes, where data read-out is performed. Each end plane is divided into 18 azimuthal sectors, which again are divided into two Multi-Wire Proportional Chambers (MWPC), the Outer and Inner Read-Out Chamber (OROC/IROC). The OROC has four Read-out Partitions (RPs); the IROC two. A RP is an electronic entity for reading out data from read-out pads. The ionistic signal will be amplified by the space charge around the wires of the MWPC. The induced charge on the read-out pads is forwarded to the read-out electronics. In total for both sides there are 557568 pads. The drift volume is filled with counting gas composed of 85.7 % Ne, 9.5 % CO2 and 4.8 % N2. A cold, light gas is used to assure low diffusion and low multiple scattering. Field distortions are minimised because of the high ion mobility and few ionisation electrons per unit length. The electronics design noise figure is 1000 RMS e− (700 actually achieved); not limiting the position resolution will require a signal/noise ratio of at least 20. Apart from tracking—measuring the charged particle momentum and having a good two-track separation—it also provides Particle IDentification (PID). The TPC is expected to perform well at multiplicities as high as dNch/dη=8000 in the particle momentum range [0.1, 100] GeV/c and within |η| 90 %, and the dE/dx resolution better than 10 %. Further, the TPC alone will have a momentum resolution of about 1 % at 2 GeV/c and 10 % at 50 GeV/c. For p–p collisions a read-out rate of ≈1 kHz is expected, while for central Pb–Pb collisions ≈0.2 kHz. Figure 1: Schematic view of the TPC. To the left a singe Read-out Partition (RP) is enlarged for visibility. The support for the sectors is shown on the two end planes. Between them is the Central Electrode (CE). The TPC allows space around the centre of the length axis for beam pipe and inner silicon detectors. II. DATA READ-OUT DESIGN As already mentioned, each sector has six RPs. A RP consists of a Read-out Control Unit (RCU) with up to 25 Front-End Cards (FEC), depending on the radial location. The innermost RPs have the highest number of FECs, as a smaller size for the readout-pads is used to increase the resolution to take into account the higher track density close to the collisions. The electronics for one RP, as well as its connection to the central systems is shown as a block diagram in Figure 2. Eight ALICE TPC Read-Out (ALTRO) [3] chips are mounted on a FEC, each capable of reading out 16 read-out pads. The FECs are attached to the RCU via buses; one for data transfer and one for control/monitoring. Once on the RCU, the data is forwarded to Data Acquisition system (DAQ) and the High Level Trigger (HLT) via a 1.25 Gb/s optical fibre. A Detector Control System (DCS) board equipped with an embedded

Objectives: Resilience is one of important subjects in health psychology. A lot of studies have investigated factors that are connected to resilience. The objective of this research was to determine role of the positive affect, negative affect and optimism, as predicting variables. Method: The participants in the research were 201 students of Shiraz University (100 males, 101 females) who experienced a traumatic event within the past 5 years. The participants were asked to complete The Traumatic Life Event Questionnaire (TLEQ), Positive Affect Negative Affect Scale (PANAS), Revised Life Orientation Test (LOT – R), and The Adolescent Resilience Scale. The data was analyzed through a stepwise multivariate regression equation. Results: Positive affect, negative affect and optimism were correlated to resilience, significantly (P = 0/001) and explained some of variances of resilience (R2 = 0/48, F = 10/23, P= 0/002). There is no any relationship between gender and marital status to resilience. Conclusion: This research indicated that positive emotions and optimism are important to increase coping abilities when confronting to traumatic events. So instruction of these factors, promote and improve mental health.

The question of identity in a narrative text is one of the most influential questions that need further study. The variations in the factors that may affect the concept of identity add to the complexity of the narrative text. The study aims at analyzing the main phases, stages, themes and events of Moses’ life story as part of the narrative discourse. The effects of time and place on the main events can help in developing the identity of Moses and other characters. The fact that time has influential features that are supposed to be found in a narrative text is crucial to this study. The most important result reveals that the three phases of configuration embrace different stages, themes and events. These stages and themes, in turn, correlate with the main events based on the main character’s intention and the transition of themes. Finally, the main features of time such as importability, stability and symbolization have their implication in developing the identity in the selected text.

Suicide is an act of killing oneself due to stressful life events and other external factors. It is the second leading cause of death globally among young people aged 15 to 29. This problem must take serious and need a solution. The purpose of this study is to identify the factors on suicidal tendencies among the college students in a private university in Dasmarinas and its relationship to the demographic profile of the respondents namely gender, age, and their respective colleges. The researchers gathered information using survey method. This study utilized the 374 respondents who were selected randomly to answer the questionnaire. The instrument used in the study has is modified questionnaire based on Purpose in Life Test with 44 items scaled from 1 to 5. An Exploratory Factor Analysis (EFA) with a varimax rotation was used to identify the factor on suicidal tendencies among college students. Six factors, with alpha greater than .70, were revealed namely suicidal ideation, negative self-evaluation, social anxiety, vices, hopelessness and helplessness. A Chi-square analysis found that there is a significant relationship between college and social anxiety, gender and vices, college and vices, college and hopelessness, and, college and helplessness. The researchers recommend to the Campus Administration and Student Wellness Center (SWC) to create programs in line with the suicidal factors found. Also, the researchers suggest to the SWC to use their questionnaire as reinforcement on their assessment tools for further investigation.

Investigating the effects of time pressure on new product development teams

본 연구의 목적은 의료기관 근로자들의 환자 개인정보 보호에 대한 인식을 평가하는 도구를 개발하고, 개발된 도구의 타당도와 신뢰도를 검증하고자 하였다. 도구의 개발 및 검증과정은 도구의 개념틀 구성, 기초 문항 작성, 내용타당도 검증, 예비조사를 거쳐 최종문항을 추출하였다. 내용타당도는 3명의 보건의료전문가의 검증을 받았고, 구성타당도는 문항분석, 탐 색적 요인분석과 확인적 요인분석을 실시하였다. 도구의 신뢰도는 Cronbach's alpha 로 검증하였다. 간호사, 병원 행정직원, 여러 보건의료 종사자들로 구성된 의료기관 근로자 279명을 대상으로 설문조사를 시행하였다. 확인적 요인분석 결과 4요인 모델의 적합도가 높아 구성타당도가 검증되었으며, 4요인 13문항으로 구성된 본 도구의 신뢰도 Cronbach's alpha는 .83이었 다. 결론적으로, 본 도구는 의료기관 근로자의 개인정보보호 인식을 측정하기에 타당도와 신뢰도가 검증된 도구인 것으로 나타났다.

<b>Background:</b> Bradycardia and hypotension are complications commonly occurring during general anesthesia in small animals. Intraoperative hypotension has been found to be associated with adverse postoperative consequences. <br><b>Objectives: </b>The objectives of his study were first, to determine the incidence of bradycardia, hypotension, and bradycardia with hypotension in dogs undergoing general anesthesia, and second, to identify the risk factors associated with these three complications. The third objective was to evaluate the relationship between these three intraoperative complications and the recovery quality in these dogs.<br><b>Methods and Materials:</b> A retrospective cohort study was performed using anesthetic records from 250 dogs undergoing general anesthesia between May 23, 2018 and October 1, 2018 at the Purdue University Veterinary Teaching Hospital. Intraoperative bradycardia was defined as heart rate &lt; 60 beats/min for at least two consecutive readings at 5 minutes apart. Hypotension was defined as mean arterial pressure (MAP) &lt; 60 mmHg or a systolic arterial pressure (SAP) &lt; 80 mmHg for at least two consecutive readings. A univariate analysis followed by multiple logistic regression was performed to build the model for bradycardia, hypotension, and bradycardia with hypotension. The relationships between the three complications and the recovery quality were analyzed using the Pearson’s chi-square test.<br><b>Results:</b> The study found that out of the 250 dogs, 114 (45.6%) developed bradycardia, 113 (45.2%) developed hypotension, and 32 (12.8%) dogs developed bradycardia with hypotension. The use of dexmedetomidine-based tranquilizers/sedatives, longer duration of anesthesia, and subjection to orthopedic and neurologic surgical procedures were all identified as risk factors for the dogs to develop bradycardia. The use of acepromazine-based tranquilizers/sedatives, young and old age dogs, and dogs subjected to neurologic surgery were associated with the development of intraoperative hypotension. When the length of the anesthesia increased, the chance for developing bradycardia with hypotension increased. There was no significant association between these intraoperative complications and the recovery quality.<b><br></b><b>Conclusions:</b> We found a high incidence of bradycardia or hypotension while a much lower incidence of bradycardia with hypotension in the anesthetized dogs. The risk factors for bradycardia were the use of dexmedetomidine-based tranquilizers/sedatives, the longer duration of anesthesia, and the performance of orthopedic surgery and neurosurgery. The risk factors for hypotension included the use of acepromazine-based tranquilizers/sedatives, the older or younger age of dogs, and the performance of neurosurgery. The risk factor for bradycardia with hypotension was the longer duration of anesthesia. While these adverse events developed intraoperatively, we could not identify a direct influence of these complications on the recovery quality. <br>